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Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets
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Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets

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  • Komarek, Lubos

    (Czech National Bank)

  • Melecky, Martin

    (University of New South Wales)

Abstract

This paper investigates the possible negative effect of external crises, sudden stops in capital flows and currency crises in emerging market economies. We find that a current account reversal has an important effect, both direct and indirect, on economic growth, and depresses GDP by about 1 percentage point in the current year, when using a broad group of emerging markets. On the other hand, currency crises themselves, identified as a sharp depreciation, do not appear to have a significant direct impact on growth. Their overall effect on growth is positive, though rather insignificant from an economic point of view. The joint occurrence of the currency crisis and the current account reversal appears to be the most damaging event for economic growth. Both the direct and compounded effects are about 5 times larger than those of the reversal in the current year. The estimated cumulative losses for current account reversals and the joint crisis are 2 and 21 percentage points, respectively. The time necessary for the adjustment of actual growth back to its equilibrium rate is roughly 2.5 years after the current account reversal and 6.5 years after the joint occurrence of the currency crisis and the reversal.

Suggested Citation

  • Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:735
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan Nedeljkovic & Gonzalo Varela & Michele Savini Zangrandi, 2015. "Indonesia Current Account Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 22340, The World Bank Group.
    2. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
    3. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2011. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment—Insights from Past Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 401-425, July.
    4. Aßmann, Christian, 2008. "Assessing the Effect of Current Account and Currency Crises on Economic Growth," Economics Working Papers 2008-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    5. Santiago Rossi & Fernando Toledo, 2022. "Estimation and prediction of current account deficit adjustment dynamics," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(80), pages 100-139, November.
    6. Antonio Francisco A. Silva Jr, 2011. "The Self-insurance Role of International Reserves and the 2008-2010 Crisis," Working Papers Series 256, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. V. Arkhipova V. & В. Архипова В., 2016. "Влияние «Внезапных Остановок» Потоков Капитала На Национальную Экономику // The National Economy Is Affected By Sudden Stops In Capital Flows," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(5), pages 115-125.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External Crises ; Economic Growth ; Open Transition Economy ; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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