(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Climate change impacts on global agriculture
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1617.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Calzadilla, Alvaro
  • Rehdanz, Katrin
  • Betts, Richard
  • Falloon, Pete
  • Wiltshire, Andy
  • Tol, Richard S. J.

Abstract

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Calzadilla, Alvaro & Rehdanz, Katrin & Betts, Richard & Falloon, Pete & Wiltshire, Andy & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Kiel Working Papers 1617, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1617
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32519/1/625694627.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    2. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2009. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 895-909.
    3. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J., 2008. "Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: A CGE analysis," Conference papers 331788, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    5. Coyle, William T., 2007. "The Future of Biofuels: A Global Perspective," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, pages 1-6, November.
    6. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    7. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2006.154, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Martin Banse & Hans van Meijl & Andrzej Tabeau & Geert Woltjer, 2008. "Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 35(2), pages 117-141, June.
    9. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "The Eonomic Impact Of More Sustainable Water Use In Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-169, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2008.
    10. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    11. Peter Verburg & Bas Eickhout & Hans Meijl, 2008. "A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 57-77, March.
    12. Hertel, Thomas & Golub, Alla & Jones, Andrew & O'Hare, Michael & Plevin, Richard & Kammen, Daniel, 2009. "Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of U.S. Maize Ethanol: The Role of Market-Mediated Responses," GTAP Working Papers 3160, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    13. Birur, Dileep & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally, 2008. "Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2413, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    14. Richard A. Betts & Olivier Boucher & Matthew Collins & Peter M. Cox & Peter D. Falloon & Nicola Gedney & Deborah L. Hemming & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & David M. H. Sexton & Mark J. Webb, 2007. "Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7157), pages 1037-1041, August.
    15. Antoine BOUËT & HUGO VALIN & Betina DIMARANAN, 2009. "Biofuels in the world markets: A Computable General Equilibrium assessment of environmental costs related to land use changes," Working Papers 6, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
    16. N. Gedney & P. M. Cox & R. A. Betts & O. Boucher & C. Huntingford & P. A. Stott, 2006. "Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records," Nature, Nature, vol. 439(7078), pages 835-838, February.
    17. Dudu, Hasan & Chumi, Sinqobile, 2008. "Economics of irrigation water management : a literature survey with focus on partial and general equilibrium models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4556, The World Bank.
    18. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    19. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economic Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    20. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
    21. Giovanni Sorda & Martin Banse & Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "The Impact of Domestic and Global Biofuel Mandates on the German Agricultural Sector," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 939, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Arjen Y. Hoekstra & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Restricted Water Supply: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-93, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2006.
    23. Rehdanz, Katrin & Berrittella, Maria & S.J. Tol, Richard & Zhang, Jian, 2008. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Water Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 631-655.
    24. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    25. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    26. Alvaro Calzadilla & Tingju Zhu & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol & Claudia Ringler, "undated". "Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers FNU-170, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.
    27. Strzepek, Kenneth & McCluskey, Alyssa, 2007. "The impacts of climate change on regional water resources and agriculture in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4290, The World Bank.
    28. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Water Pricing: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-96, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2006.
    29. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 305-323, May.
    30. Hertel, Thomas W. & Golub, Alla & Jones, Andrew D. & O'Hare, Michael & Plevin, Richard J. & Kammen, Daniel M., 2009. "Supporting Online Materials for: Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Maize Ethanol: The Role of Market-Mediated Responses," Working papers 283473, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 150-165.
    2. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "The Eonomic Impact Of More Sustainable Water Use In Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-169, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2008.
    4. Boulanger, Pierre & Jomini, Patrick & Zhang, Xiao-guang & Costa, Catherine & Osborne, Michelle, 2010. "The Common Agricultural Policy and the French, European and World Economies," Conference papers 332019, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "The GTAP-W model: Accounting for water use in agriculture," Kiel Working Papers 1745, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J., 2008. "Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: A CGE analysis," Conference papers 331788, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Alvaro Calzadilla & Tingju Zhu & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol & Claudia Ringler, "undated". "Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers FNU-170, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.
    8. Nicholas Kilimani & Jan van Heerden & Heinrich Bohlmann & Louise Roos, 2016. "Counting the Cost of Drought Induced Productivity Losses in an Agro-Based Economy: The Case of Uganda," Working Papers 201649, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    10. Dinar, Ariel, 2012. "Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6068, The World Bank.
    11. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2006.154, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 122862, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    13. María Blanco & Marcel Adenäuer & Shailesh Shrestha & Arno Becker, 2012. "Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC80037, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Ouraich, Ismail & Tyner, Wallace E., 2014. "Morocco's unique situation in the climate change arena: An analysis of climate forecasts and their link to agriculture," WIDER Working Paper Series 088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Jing Liu & Thomas Hertel & Farzad Taheripour, 2016. "Analyzing Future Water Scarcity in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-30, December.
    16. Kerstin Ronneberger & Maria Berrittella & Francesco Bosello & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling experiment," Working Papers FNU-105, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
    17. Haddad, Salwa & Britz, Wolfgang & Börner, Jan, 2017. "Impacts Of Increased Forest Biomass Demand In The European Bioeconomy," 57th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 13-15, 2017 261986, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    18. Jian Zhang & Denise Eby Konan, 2010. "The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 750-767, November.
    19. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Mark Horridge & Renato Vargas, 2016. "A Conceptual Framework for Integrated Economic-Environmental Modelling," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0202, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    20. Weslem Rodrigues Faria & Eduardo Amaral Haddad, 2017. "Modeling Land Use And The Effects Of Climate Change In Brazil," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-37, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium; Climate Change; Agriculture; Water Resources;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1617. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.