(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Foreign exchange rate exposure of companies under dynamic regret
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/upadbr/b4020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign exchange rate exposure of companies under dynamic regret

Author

Listed:
  • Entrop, Oliver
  • Fuchs, Fabian U.

Abstract

This paper analyzes optimal hedge ratios for foreign exchange (FX) rate risk of companies. Our contribution to the literature is twofold: (i) We present a theoretical two-period regret model that allows us to analyze the determinants of the optimal hedge ratio given the outcome of past hedging decisions and future expectations. The model implies that the optimal hedge ratio depends on the past hedge ratio, the past exchange rate return, the expected exchange rate return and the skewness of its distribution, its covariance to the foreign market return, as well as the company's risk and regret aversion. (ii) We test the related model-derived hypotheses on a broad sample of US non-financial companies over the period 1995 to 2015 and find strong evidence for the model's predictions. By adding a dynamic regret approach to the hedging and FX literature we shed further light on the rationale behind selective hedging.

Suggested Citation

  • Entrop, Oliver & Fuchs, Fabian U., 2020. "Foreign exchange rate exposure of companies under dynamic regret," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-40-20, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:upadbr:b4020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/213889/1/1689683600.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The impact of the introduction of the Euro on foreign exchange rate risk exposures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 519-549, October.
    3. Ikeda, Shinsuke, 1991. "Arbitrage Asset Pricing under Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 447-455, March.
    4. David E. Bell, 1983. "Risk Premiums for Decision Regret," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1156-1166, October.
    5. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2483-2487.
    6. Aggarwal, Raj & Harper, Joel T., 2010. "Foreign exchange exposure of "domestic" corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1619-1636, December.
    7. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    8. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    9. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
    10. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
    11. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 363-376, September.
    13. Jones, Jj, 1991. "Earnings Management During Import Relief Investigations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 193-228.
    14. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    15. Horst Entorf & Jochen Moebert & Katja Sonderhof, 2011. "The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 339-353, April.
    16. Sugden Robert, 1993. "An Axiomatic Foundation for Regret Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 159-180, June.
    17. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
    19. Quiggin, John, 1994. "Regret Theory with General Choice Sets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 153-165, March.
    20. Huffman, Stephen P. & Makar, Stephen D. & Beyer, Scott B., 2010. "A three-factor model investigation of foreign exchange-rate exposure," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-12.
    21. Will Kinlaw & Mark Kritzman, 2009. "Optimal currency hedging in- and out-of-sample," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 22-36, April.
    22. Martin Glaum, 2002. "The Determinants Of Selective Exchange Risk Management–Evidence From German Non‐Financial Corporations," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(4), pages 108-121, January.
    23. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1993. "Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1629-1658, December.
    24. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-241.
    25. Zeelenberg, Marcel & Beattie, Jane & van der Pligt, Joop & de Vries, Nanne K., 1996. "Consequences of Regret Aversion: Effects of Expected Feedback on Risky Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 148-158, February.
    26. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Wong, 2015. "Exchange Rate Risk and the Impact of Regret on Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 109-119, February.
    27. Geczy, Christopher & Minton, Bernadette A & Schrand, Catherine, 1997. "Why Firms Use Currency Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1323-1354, September.
    28. Emel Filiz-Ozbay & Erkut Y. Ozbay, 2007. "Auctions with Anticipated Regret: Theory and Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1407-1418, September.
    29. Allayannis, George & Ofek, Eli, 2001. "Exchange rate exposure, hedging, and the use of foreign currency derivatives," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-296, April.
    30. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    31. Aline Muller & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2006. "European Foreign Exchange Risk Exposure," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(2), pages 195-220, March.
    32. Nance, Deana R & Smith, Clifford W, Jr & Smithson, Charles W, 1993. "On the Determinants of Corporate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 267-284, March.
    33. Priestley, Richard & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2007. "Linear and nonlinear exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1016-1037, October.
    34. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Steffen Brenner, 2015. "The Risk Preferences of U.S. Executives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1344-1361, June.
    36. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M. & Zhu, Yun, 2017. "Do managerial risk-taking incentives influence firms' exchange rate exposure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 154-169.
    37. Beber, Alessandro & Fabbri, Daniela, 2012. "Who times the foreign exchange market? Corporate speculation and CEO characteristics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1065-1087.
    38. Patro, Dilip K. & Wald, John K. & Wu, Yangru, 2002. "Explaining exchange rate risk in world stock markets: A panel approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 1951-1972, October.
    39. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    40. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette A., 2010. "Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 148-173, February.
    41. Michael Braun & Alexander Muermann, 2004. "The Impact of Regret on the Demand for Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 737-767, December.
    42. René M. Stulz, 1996. "Rethinking Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 8-25, September.
    43. Kothari, S.P. & Leone, Andrew J. & Wasley, Charles E., 2005. "Performance matched discretionary accrual measures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 163-197, February.
    44. Han Bleichrodt & Alessandra Cillo & Enrico Diecidue, 2010. "A Quantitative Measurement of Regret Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 161-175, January.
    45. David E. Bell, 1982. "Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 961-981, October.
    46. Qin, Jie, 2015. "A model of regret, investor behavior, and market turbulence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 150-174.
    47. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    48. Wong, Kit Pong, 2014. "Regret theory and the competitive firm," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-175.
    49. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    50. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. "Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-1785, December.
    51. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:733-753 is not listed on IDEAS
    52. Gordon M. Bodnar & Gregory S. Hayt & Richard C. Marston, 1998. "1998 Wharton Survey of Financial Risk Management by US Non-Financial Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
    53. Enrico Diecidue & Nils Rudi & Wenjie Tang, 2012. "Dynamic Purchase Decisions Under Regret: Price and Availability," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 22-30, March.
    54. Michenaud, Sébastien & Solnik, Bruno, 2008. "Applying regret theory to investment choices: Currency hedging decisions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 677-694, September.
    55. Smith, Clifford W. & Stulz, René M., 1985. "The Determinants of Firms' Hedging Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 391-405, December.
    56. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
    57. Muermann, Alexander & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Volkman, Jacqueline M., 2006. "Regret, portfolio choice, and guarantees in defined contribution schemes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 219-229, October.
    58. Khoo, Andrew, 1994. "Estimation of foreign exchange exposure: an application to mining companies in Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 342-363, June.
    59. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    60. Liu, Fang & Sercu, Piet & Vandebroek, Martina, 2015. "Orthogonalized regressors and spurious precision, with an application to currency exposures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-263.
    61. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    62. Chang, Feng-Yi & Hsin, Chin-Wen & Shiah-Hou, Shin-Rong, 2013. "A re-examination of exposure to exchange rate risk: The impact of earnings management and currency derivative usage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3243-3257.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fuchs, Fabian U., 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-42-20, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    2. Fuchs, Fabian U., 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 77-102.
    3. Chang, Feng-Yi & Hsin, Chin-Wen & Shiah-Hou, Shin-Rong, 2013. "A re-examination of exposure to exchange rate risk: The impact of earnings management and currency derivative usage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3243-3257.
    4. Sikarwar, Ekta, 2022. "Board attributes, hedging activities and exchange rate risk: Multi-country firm-level evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Entrop, Oliver & Merkel, Matthias F., 2018. ""Exchange rate risk" within the European Monetary Union? Analyzing the exchange rate exposure of German firm," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-31-18, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    6. Ekta Sikarwar & Roopak Gupta, 2019. "Economic exposure to exchange rate risk and financial hedging," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(4), pages 965-984, August.
    7. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Foreign exchange risk exposure: Survey and suggestions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 385-410, October.
    8. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Mazouz, Khelifa & Yin, Shuxing, 2013. "The foreign exchange exposure of UK non-financial firms: A comparison of market-based methodologies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 251-260.
    9. Entrop, Oliver & Fuchs, Fabian U., 2020. "Implicit currency carry trades of companies," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-41-20, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    10. Akay, Gokhan H. & Cifter, Atilla, 2014. "Exchange rate exposure at the firm and industry levels: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 426-434.
    11. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M. & Zhu, Yun, 2017. "Do managerial risk-taking incentives influence firms' exchange rate exposure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 154-169.
    13. Entrop, Oliver & Merkel, Matthias F., 2018. "Managers' research education, the use of FX derivatives and corporate speculation," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-32-18, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    14. Hutson, Elaine & Laing, Elaine, 2014. "Foreign exchange exposure and multinationality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 97-113.
    15. Hutson, Elaine & O'Driscoll, Anthony, 2010. "Firm-level exchange rate exposure in the Eurozone," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 468-478, October.
    16. Korn, Olaf & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2019. "Hedging with regret," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 192-205.
    17. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Can hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in United States aggregate- and industry-level exchange rate risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 169-196, November.
    18. Sikarwar, Ekta, 2020. "Forex interventions and exchange rate exposure: Evidence from emerging market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 69-81.
    19. Hoberg, Gerard & Moon, S. Katie, 2017. "Offshore activities and financial vs operational hedging," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 217-244.
    20. Martín Egozcue & Xu Guo & Wing-Keung Wong, 2015. "Optimal output for the regret-averse competitive firm under price uncertainty," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 279-295, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate exposure; regret aversion; hedging; risk aversion; derivatives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:upadbr:b4020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwpasde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.