When building any kind of baseball team, whether it is fantasy or real, having a top-of-the-line starting pitcher is always a key component. Last season was an incredible year for pitching with FeliX Hernandez, Zach Greinke and Adam Wainwright having breakout seasons.
Even with many familiar names finding themselves on this list, the landscape of pitching has changed somewhat drastically this season; two of the top 10 pitchers are on new teams and new leagues. The amount of depth at starting pitcher has increased, too, evidenced by the exclusion of former Cy Young award winner Johan Santana from this list.
But the question still remains, which of these power arms is the ace of aces? Which pitcher will be able to bring the heat all season and carry your team to a championship?
Let’s take a look.
1. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
2009 – 15 W 2.48 ERA 261K 1.05 WHIP
Lincecum didn’t lead the majors in any statistical category last year, but he should be the first pitcher taken in your draft. Despite not having the best statistical line, Lincecum has proven over the past two seasons that he is one of the most dependable and consistent pitchers in the majors; if you do not believe me just look at his consecutive Cy Young Awards. Lincecum pitches in the weakest division in baseball and does not have the questions surrounding him that some of the other pitchers I will talk about have, which is why he is tops on my list.
(AP)
(AP)
(Paul J. Bereswill)
2. Zach Grienke – Kansas City Royals
2009 – 16 W 2.16 ERA 242K 1.07 WHIP
Prior to his incredible campaign in 2009, Zack Greinke never had an ERA below 3.40, never won more than 13 games in a season, and never struck out more than 200 batters, which is why he is ranked below his Cy Young counterpart, Tim Lincecum. I have no reason to believe Greinke’s year was a fluke and there is no proof he will continue to make major-league batters look like children; however, there is no ignoring a sub 2.20 ERA, 240+ strikeouts and 16 wins on an otherwise abysmal Kansas City Royals team.
3. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
2009 – 19 W 2.49 ERA 217K 1.14 WHIP
King Felix led the MLB in winning percentage and tied for the league-lead in wins, but despite those impressive statistics, Hernandez finds himself near the end of the first round. His numbers dictate that Hernandez is worthy of a first-round pick, and made a strong case for the AL Cy Young, but his ERA was just over .30 worse than Zack Greinke’s and his strikeout numbers were not nearly as impressive as Justin Verlander’s, two stats that are holding him back in terms of fantasy production. Hernandez is a great pitcher who happens to play in a very strong pitcher’s ballpark in Seattle, so his numbers should remain consistent.
4. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
2009 – 19 W 2.49 ERA 217K 1.14 WHIP
If it weren’t for Aaron Hill, Justin Verlander would have won the AL Comeback Player of the Year award for 2009. Verlander had a major bounce-back year after a disappointing 2008 when he posted an 11-17 record and an ERA close to 5.00. Last season Verlander led the majors in wins, innings pitched and strikeouts, but he falls just short of being worthy of a first-round draft pick. Verlander’s ERA was much-improved last season but was still the highest of any pitcher on this list and his WHIP was a tad bit worse than the other pitchers named here. Keeping that in mind, Verlander is more than capable of carrying a pitching staff for the entire season, so draft him without any hesitation.
5. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
2009 – 17 W 2.79 ERA 208K 1.13 WHIP
Despite him being one of the most consistently dominant pitchers in baseball, there are a few reasons I am going to rank Roy Halladay this low even after making the beneficial AL/NL swap. I am not denying Halladay’s greatness nor am I saying he will have a terrible year, but I do have reservations about his potential in Philadelphia. First off, Halladay will be pitching in Citizens Bank Ballpark, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, meaning there is a potential for his ERA to balloon a bit. Second, even though Halladay will be facing weaker lineups in the NL, that aspect will also harm him. Remember, the NL is managed completely differently than the AL, with pitchers being taken out of games early for pinch-hitters, and this will effect Halladay’s IP and CG numbers. Finally, Halladay is going from pitching in Toronto, which is a hockey first city, to Philadelphia, where the fans are as ruthless as can be; just ask Santa Claus.
6. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
2009 – 19 W 2.63 ERA 212K 1.21 WHIP
Adam Wainwright had a career-year last season and formed one of the best 1-2 combos in all of baseball with Chris Carpenter. Wainwright led the NL in wins with 19 and set career-highs in games started, innings pitched, strikeouts and had a career-low 2.63 ERA. These stats would normally be good enough to get him into the top five, but there is a problem. Aside from posting those incredible numbers, Wainwright also gave up a career high 216 hits, 17 home runs and had the 2nd highest WHIP on this list with 1.21. Wainwright should be able to have similar numbers to those of last season considering he is 29 years old and is a former first-round draft pick. so there should be no second-guessing yourself when drafting the Cardinals ace.
7. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
2009 – 19 W 3.37 ERA 197K 1.15 WHIP
If you draft CC Sabathia you essentially know what you are going to get. Sabathia is the definition of a workhorse and will give you a ton of innings, wins and strikeouts. Sabathia has been in the majors for nine seasons and has pitched over 180 innings in every one. In addition, Sabathia has notched at least 15 wins in five of his nine seasons and has yet to have a losing record. Where Sabathia has really improved over the past several seasons is in his ability to strike out batters. Even with his punch-out numbers being down from his 2008 total of 251, it was still respectable at 197 last season. The reason Sabathia is so low on this list is simple: He is an ace, but collectively his numbers are not as good as some of the other pitchers named here, particularly the NL guys.
8. Dan Haren – Arizona Diamondbacks
2009 – 14 W 3.14 ERA 223K 1.00 WHIP
Dan Haren was the victim of being on a bad team in 2009. The Diamondbacks were one of the worst teams in baseball, finishing last in the NL West with a 70-92 record. Haren was one of the few bright spots on the Diamondbacks but was unable to tally enough wins to propel him higher on this list. Haren gave up two earned runs or fewer in 21 of his 33 games started, but the Diamondbacks were able to win 11 of those games. Haren’s opponent’s batting average against was a miniscule .224 last season and his WHIP was an even 1.00, which was good for tops on this list. The Diamondbacks improved somewhat this offseason with the addition of Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson, which is what is really important for Haren owners because he is as solid as they come.
9. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
2009 – 17 W 2.24 ERA 144K 1.01 WHIP
After posting a record of 51-18 from 2004-2006, Chris Carpenter started a total of four games in 2007 and 2008 combined. Carpenter appeared to be finished as a starting pitcher but was able to have one of his best seasons and become one of the feel-good stories in baseball in 2009. Carpenter pitched brilliantly for the Cardinals last season, going 17-4 with a microscopic 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. There are questions that surround Carpenter, however, and his strikeout numbers are not high enough for him to make his way up this list. Keeping Carpenter’s injury history in mind, he was the only pitcher here to not reach the 200-inning mark, and it will be interesting to see how his arm recovers after pitching a full season’s workload in 2009.
1
0. Cliff Lee – Seattle Mariners
2009 – 14 W 3.22 ERA 181K 1.24 WHIP
If you look at Cliff Lee’s numbers from 2009, you would be shocked to find his ERA actually increased after he was traded from the Indians to the Phillies. Though Lee’s ERA increased by .25 after making the league switch, his WHIP and BAA both dropped by .17 and he was able to rack up the same number of wins (7), complete games (3) and shutouts (1) in 12 Philadelphia starts that he did in 22 with Cleveland. Lee finds himself on a new team again in 2010, this time moving to the Seattle Mariners and pitching behind Felix Hernandez. Lee rounds out the list at 10 because of his high WHIP (1.24) and for having the lowest strikeout total for any pitcher on the list with 200 or more innings. He is still a very good pitcher but a notch below the others.