The Path to retake Michigan’s State House 2024

Note – This is ASSUMING that no swing districts profiled here are touched by the current VRA lawsuits right now.

The gerrymandered commission drew a democrat favorable map combined with strange communities of interests and city/county splits. It resulted in a 56-54 Democrat Majority in the State House. Every single State House district is up next year, and the new term limits rule may impact some things since reps can now serve 12 years in the legislature – not just three terms in the House and two in the Senate. Term limits is now after six terms in the House if the rep decides not to run for State Senate.

The good news is that R’s only need to flip two seats to get majority. The bad news is that R’s need to win all the defenses to be one away from a tie. While MRP is a disaster right now, they do not have much of a factor with these State House races. The major organization involved here is HRCC (Caucus).

These are the potentially competitive defenses in the State House 15% or less wins – The maps are for 2016/2020 Composite, not State House numbers:

HD-28 – Jamie Thompson (R)

2022 – R – 50.99%, D – 49.01%

DRA Composite 16/20 48.8%-48.6%D

Jamie is one of the 2022 bright spots. She took formerly D, now R Trump areas in Monroe County by about 1700. She won the must win areas of Woodhaven and Rockwood. She won Flat Rock by 400. That makes up for the major D areas of Brownstown Twp (lost by 700, no shame), and the bluest part of Taylor (lost by 700). There’s a big target on her back. Downriver is competitive, but it’s still ancestrally democrat. Jamie has a knack of surviving the targeted hits against her during the last campaign. If she continues to work hard, be seen in her community, and gets to the community events, I like her chances at re-election.

HD-29 – James DeSana (R)

2022 – R – 51.48%, D – 48.52%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.3%-47.7%R

DeSana cleaned up in Monroe County and in Huron Twp (long the most R part of Downriver outside of affluent Grosse Ile). He lost big the Romulus and Taylor portions (which were his opponent’s old district). DeSana’s district is about 1-2% to the right of Thompson’s, but his record is closer to someone in a 60-40 type of district. I expect a big target here, although he will probably survive if he doesn’t get smoked in Taylor. I’m more worried about him than I am about Jamie Thompson.

HD-42 – Matt Hall (R)

2022 – R – 54.99%, D – 45.01%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 52.6-44.1%R

This was a closer election than I thought. Hall only lost Plainwell narrowly (historically dem), Galesburg narrowly, and the one Kalamazoo Twp precinct, but Comstock Twp (home of Bell’s Brewery) was kept close to 50/50. If Comstock starts going the way of Oshtemo west of Kalamazoo, we will have some problems here. Hall’s the minority leader, so he might have some troubles that other reps wouldn’t have. Jace Bolger nearly lost a district similar to this back in 2012.

HD-46 – Kathy Schmaltz (R)

2022 – R – 54.37%, D – 45.63%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.4-47.4%D

This will be probably our toughest defense. The dems abandoned this district when their young punk nominee had too many skeletons. I don’t expect Schmaltz to get a free pass next time. This was another Washtenaw gerrymander. I expect the D’s 46% here to be a floor, not a ceiling. Schmaltz took all of the Jackson Couny areas big outside of the City of Jackson, which she lost by 740. The dem’s only got 54% in Jackson City. That’s rare. It’s usually in the upper 50’s, sometimes 60%. D’s still took the Washtenaw portion. Chelsea has a lot of AWFLs. Sylvan Twp was barely D, but Chelsea itself went 2051-1156 – even with the D’s abandoning their candidate. Chelsea is the home of Purple Rose Theater run by Jeff Daniels. It’s also a bedroom community for Ann Arbor liberals who want a small town big on the arts. Chelsea is perfect for them. Schmaltz has her work cut out for her.

HD-49 – Ann Bollin (R)

2022 – R – 55.78%, D – 44.22%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 53.7-43.7%R

Whitmer won this district last election which shows how much of a wave there was in Oakland County (and Brighton City). Wixom, Walled Lake, Novi portion, Commerce Twp portion and City of Brighton all turned heavily against Dixon last election. Luckily there’s still a solid R core with Brighton Township, Green Oak Township, and the northern part of Lyon Township. Ann should be fine, but this isn’t the old district solely in Livingston County anymore. The main blue base is the area just south of Pontiac Trail in Wixom/Novi. The Wixom portion has the cheap rent Village Apartments. That dominates the big blue precinct that is otherwise mostly industrial outside of some condos by Grand River. East of there is similar type areas to the “Village” in Novi in that small darker blue precinct. Walled Lake is swingish and always has been. The Commerce precinct I think is still red, although it borders some blue areas. The other light blue Wixom precinct is downtown. Lyon Township is fast growing and we need to keep pace there. City of Brighton is the “light red” part, but it’s the bluest part of Livingston County. Trump won it twice, but barely. Obama won it in 08. There’s a lot of new apartments and townhouses going up there. I don’t think that does Rs many favors. Luckily for Ann, Green Oak is still solid, and Brighton Township is still one of the strongest areas in Livingston County. Those two areas can carry a district on their own for the most part, but I’d rather not get into a position where we have to depend on them to do all the heavy lifting.

HD-51 – Matt Maddock (R)

2022 R – 57.79%, D – 42.21%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 58.7-38.7%R

This is slightly over 15% of a difference, but I put it on here since Matt Maddock is beloved by his base and despised by the dems and R establishment. With White Lake and Highland in the district, I don’t see a path for the dems to take out Maddock, but the dems have the same opinion of Maddock as we have of Mallory McMorrow, Dayna Polehanki, and Noah Arbit. Matt lost Milford Village. He did win all the other precincts however. His wife Meshawn Maddock is one of the “alternate electors” charged by Dana Nessel. I think it’s a BS case, but it’s still going to effect this district directly because of her husband being a State Rep and a lightning rod for the dems. Milford Twp will be interesting to watch here, along with the Commerce portion.

HD-54 – Donni Steele (R)

2022 – R – 51.17%, D – 48.83%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.1-47.6%R

Orion saved the day in this backwards C shaped district in Oakland County Steele won the Oakland Twp portion by 550, Bloomfield Hills by 230, and Orion Township by 2500. She lost Auburn Hills by 1300 and Bloomfield Township portion by about 1000. R’s need to stop the bleeding in the Bloomfields and Auburn Hills and not lose ground in Orion Township. This will be a tough defense.

HD-55 – Mark Tisdel (R)

2022 – R – 51.89%, D – 48.20

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.7-48.1%R

The most impressive 2022 defense may have been right there in the Rochesters in Oakland County. Tisdel narrowly won all municipalities here. This will be a major battle in 2024. Biden and Whitmer both won this district.

HD-57 – Thomas Kuhn (R)

2022 – R – 52.64%, D – 47.36%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.3-47.6%R

The commission crossed the cultural barrier of Dequindre Road between Oakland and Macomb County. Kuhn was from the Oakland side, but was able to win the Sterling Heights (quintessential swing city) by 2400. He lost the Madison Heights precinct by 150, and the Troy portion by about 500. As long as Sterling Heights doesn’t go back to the Obama numbers, we should survive here, but that is a fickle city when it comes to elections.

HD-62 – Alicia St Germaine (R)

2022 – R – 53.42%, D – 46.58%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.9-47.3%R

This was a big win and a bright spot for Rs in a bad year. St Germaine won the Chesterfield Twp portion by 1000 and Harrison Twp by 2400. The swingish areas of Fraser she won by 80 and St Clair Shores she won by 700. That makes up for the 180 vote loss in Roseville and the D base part of Clinton Twp (portion south of Mt Clemens) she lost by 1100.

HD-68 – David Martin (R)

2022 – R – 54.72%, D – 45.28%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.4-46.8%R

If we had 110 David Martin types as candidates, we’d have the majority by a good margin. This guy is one of the best candidates and campaigners I’ve seen. He’s a veteran who shows up to work, does his job, doesn’t play games with people, is inoffensive, and is straight forward. He looks like a union guy, which helps in this district. The Oakland County part of this district is base R Groveland Township. Martin won that 2-1 and by 1000 votes. He also won Atlas Twp, a base R area in Genesee County by 1500. The tougher areas also went for Martin. He won (most of) historically democrat Burton by 4 votes. Game over. Dems can’t win the district without winning Burton. Davison City and Twp went for the hometown Martin. The Genesee Twp portion went for Martin. Even the Grand Blanc Twp portion went to Martin. Only GB City went for the dems by about 300. That was new territory for Martin. This district would not be competitive in 2012, but R’s now can win in Davison and Burton.

HD-86 – Nancy DeBoer (R)

2022 – R – 56.13%, D – 43.81%

DRA Composite – 52.3-44.6%R

Holland isn’t the Holland of the George W Bush era. The Lakeshore communities have moved a bit to the left with affluent white liberals moving there from Chicago, Ann Arbor, East Lansing, and other places. In addition, there’s a large Hispanic population in Holland itself. In addition, the old Dutch Establishment is not Trump friendly at all. They are more like Betsy DeVos and Gerry Ford Republicans which despise vulgarness and don’t care much for brashness. We’re seeing that play out right now with local party fighting between the moderate old guard which supported much of the COVID restrictions and Ottawa Impact which is more libertarian or populist. Nancy DeBoer is the former Holland Mayor and won by a good margin here. She won the Ottawa suburbs of Holland of Holland Township and Park Township. She lost the Ottawa Part of Holland by 600, but won the Allegan part of Holland by 540. Laketown Township in Allegan County is still blood red and she won that easily. This is district to watch in the future. I think we’ll be okay if we don’t blow it in candidate quality, but the Ottawa Impact-old guard battles could cause issues here. I can see one of their types losing this district. This isn’t Zeeland or Hudsonville. This is a more moderate area.

HD-88 – Greg Van Woerkom (R)

2022 – R – 56.30%, D – 41.88%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 54.4-42.6%R

The Ottawa Lakeshore is not what it was pre-2008 with Grand Haven getting much bluer, but the rest of the area is still solid. Norton Shores, a Muskegon suburb, is quite competitive. Greg Van Woerkom’s father (Gerald) was a state rep in a swing district covering the Muskegon suburbs including Norton Shores. Greg has an easier district, but not a gimme with the lakeshore trends. Greg won Norton Shores by 1400. Trump won it twice narrowly, but Mitt Romney lost Norton Shores. The dems need Norton Shores to win the district. Van Woerkom won the rest of the district easily outside of the now solidly democrat (since 2008) Grand Haven. Grand Haven is a yuppie Lake Michigan vacation area and moving left like similar towns like Saugatuck, South Haven, parts of Leelanau County, Traverse City, Petoskey and New Buffalo. The eastern townships should save us here in tough years, but keeping Norton Shores to a draw or better is a must.

HD-92 – Jerry Neyer (R)

2022 – R – 55.53%, D – 42.41%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.8-46.1%R

Mt Pleasant is the home of Central Michigan University and is a blue stronghold along with Union Township surrounding it, but the rest of the district moved red since the Obama years. D’s nearly took a similar district about 3-5 times since 1998, but came up just short every time. The goal is simple for Rs. Run the score up in the rural areas (which were not strongly R until recently), win Ithaca and St Louis, and fight to a draw in Alma. Neyer exceeded it and won everywhere except Mt Pleasant (where all Rs get smoked) and Union Twp (surrounds Mt Pleasant). Chippewa Twp (Native Americans) is swingish to light blue, but voted for Neyer (and Trump). Alma is a swing to light blue town and the home of small Alma college. Trump did win it narrowly twice, while Obama won it easily. Romney might have lost this entire district losing Isabella County overall, Alma, St Louis, and Ithaca. It’s moved in our direction, but Mt Pleasant can carry the dems much of the way home on its own.

HD-96 – Timothy Beson (R)

2022 – R – 55.32%, D – 44.68%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.5-46.4%R

This district wasn’t even competitive at all until 2016. It still took the right candidate to flip. Beson is one of the best candidates I’ve met. He finally flipped the Bay City district. I think he could probably defeat Kristen McDonald Rivet or win the open congressional seat if he decides to run for State Senate or Congress. The fight in this district is the suburbs. Bangor Twp, Monitor Twp, Essexville, Hampton Twp, and Portsmouth Twp. Bay City is a battle in terms of margin. If the dems get 60% here, they’ll take the district most likely. Beeson got 42-43% in Bay City. He lost Essexville narrowly. He won Hampton Twp narrowly. He won the rest of the suburbs easily. Romney lost Bangor, Hampton, Portsmouth, and Essexville in 2012 (along with the Pinconning area in another district). Trump won them all twice. This is a must keep seat to get majority. I’m confident Beson can hold it.

HD-107 – Neil Friske (R)

2022 – R – 56.59%, D – 43.41%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 56.8%-40.5%

I’m a little surprised to see this district within 15%. Friske is hated by the dems, but I thought this district was redder than it was on composite. Friske only lost the City of Charlevoix (Trump/Biden vacation town), Peine Twp in Charlevoix County (Island in Lake Michigan that Trump won twice), St James Twp (Island in Lake MI Trump lost twice), the City of Sault Ste Marie (Obama/Trump city), Harbor Springs (Rich vacation town that voted Trump/Biden), was blown out in Petoskey (rich vacation town Trump lost twice), and Mackinac Island. Friske won St Ignace, which is a swing area. I don’t see a path for the dems to take this district since Gary McDowell ran up the score in the UP in a somewhat similar district. If the dems start getting more coastal townships around Charlevoix, Petoskey, Harbor Springs, and Mackinaw City and also win the Boyne area, St Ignace, and the Soo, there might be a path. I don’t see it yet, as long as the dems continue to be the abortion on demand party. Petoskey is becoming Traverse City North, but it’s not that yet and doesn’t have the college population either. Chicago and Ann Arbor retirees could make Charlevoix, Boyne, Petoskey, Torch Lake, and Harbor Springs more interesting though.

These are the potentially competitive offenses in the State House – 15% or less losses:

HD-20 – Noah Arbit (D)

2022 – D – 56.64%, R – 43.36%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 56-42%D

This is certainly a longshot, but it’s worth investing in due to strictly the jackass factor. Noah Arbit is one of the most annoying individuals in the D Legislature. The right candidate can give Noah a headache. Arbit’s base is West Bloomfield, which he won by 6000. He lost the Bloomfield Twp precinct (which is the light blue one in the NE corner), which shows some weakness on Arbit’s part. Arbit lost all except one of the Commerce precincts. He did win Keego Harbor and Sylvan Lake. If the R’s are going to win this, they need to clean up in all “non West Bloomfield” areas, win the Northern part of West Bloomfield, and narrow the losses in the southern portion of the township.

HD-21 – Kelly Breen (D)

2022 – D – 56.43%, R – 42.27%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 54-44%D

This is a seat that was lost under better borders (Lyon Township, South Lyon, Novi) in 2020. Now while it loses part of Novi, it also loses most of Lyon Twp and picks up a little bit of Farmington Hills/Farmington which is tougher territory. Breen won everywhere except in Lyon Township. This would have been very competitive at late as 2016. Just as realignment benefits us in Eastern Genesee County, it hurts us in the old Thad McCotter areas – Novi, Northville, Canton, (lesser extent) Livonia, (lesser extent) and Commerce.

HD-22 – Matt Koleszar (D)

2022 – D – 54.25%, R – 45.75%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.2-48.6%D

Cathryn Neracher gave it a run without caucus support against the MEA’s (Teacher’s union) favorite Democrat. She worked hard, but Koleszar’s MEA connections, caucus support, and Whitmer cleaning up the area was too much to get past. If Tudor kept it within 5% statewide, we may have been looking at different results here (since caucus probably would have gotten involved then). Koleszar won all areas last election. I know some Rs are pushing veteran Rob Donovic out of Livonia to run.

HD-27 – Jamie Churches (D)

2022 – D – 50.78%, R – 49.22%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49-48.4%R

I think this is possibly our best chance to flip a seat. Jamie is not an old school moderate, but a radical MEA shrill who is way out of the mainstream. Churches barely won last election against Bob Howey who survived a difficult primary. Howey took Gibralter, Grosse Ile, and Trenton. Churches won Southgate by 800, the must win area of Riverview, and her home of Wyandotte by 1300.

HD-31 – Reggie Miller (D)

2022 – D – 52.26%, R – 47.74%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 51-46.2%D

This is the toughest of the “swingish” Downriver/Monroe districts to flip. This map is deceiving. Biniecki won most areas. He took the Lenawee township 2-1 and by 219 and the Monroe part by around 2900. The Washtenaw part went D by around 250. Augusta Twp is swingish, and Milan is blue. Wayne County is the issue. Biniecki took Sumpter Twp by abound 400 which almost offsets the Belleville City loss of 450. That means the D’s needed to take the Romulus portion and Van Buren Twp by slightly under 3000. Reggie Miller did that. The Romulus portion went D only by 140, but Van Buren saved the day. It’s a major D stronghold of airport workers and went D by almost 5000 votes, leaving no doubt. R’s need to make some inroads there with Black voters to have a shot.

HD-38 – Joey Andrews (D)

2022 – D – 51.79%, R – 48.21%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 51.3-46.2%D

This was the infamous “Lakeshore” community of interest that decided that the “gay capitol” of West Michigan Saugatuck/Douglas and post-industrial Black Majority Benton Harbor have the same interests outside of electing democrats. Kevin Whiteford made it close, but that one two punch along with D leaning South Haven and New Buffalo (both known for Chicago vacationers) was too much to overcome.It’s winnable in a good year.

HD-44 – Jim Haadsma (D)

2022 – D-52.25%, R – 47.75%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 48.7-47.9%D

This was round 3 I believe of the Haadsma/Morgan race. This is always going to be a difficult race to win as long as Battle Creek and Albion are in the same district as it is a 1-2 punch for the dems. It’s winnable however with the right candidate. Battle Creek is a lean D city, but it isn’t like Lansing or Kalamazo. Albion is a small college town that also has a large Black population.

HD-48 – Jennifer Conlin (D)

2002 – D – 53.08%, R – 45.80%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.6-40.7%D

My gerrymandered district is the infamous “middle finger” shaped district that combines Hamburg Twp, Genoa Township, and Pinckney/Putnam in Livingston County, Waterloo Twp in Jackson County, and part of the City of Ann Arbor north of the river. I don’t know what the “community of interest” is here, but that’s what the commission wanted for us. Caucus didn’t get involved in this race last time. That’s a sore spot for Jason Woolford and Rs in Livingston County, many of whom do not care much for Ann Arbor (and many A2Ds don’t like Livingston County either). The strategy here is to run up the score in base areas, and lose by less in the other areas. Jason Woolford won the Jackson and Livingston portions big. Waterloo was won by 300, Genoa by 2400 (good, but not enough), Hamburg by 850 (better than others in a bad year, not good enough), and Putnam/Pinckney by 250. That’s about a 3800 cushion without Washtenaw. Woolford did take competitive Northfield Twp by 50 votes. That’s a 3850 cushion now. He lost the three must win areas. Lyndon Twp (by 65, Webster Twp (by 750), and Dexter Twp (by 600). A slightly under 2400 vote cushion against Ann Arbor isn’t going to cut it. Ann Arbor Twp portion went 2-1D and slightly under 500 votes for the dems. The City portion was about 86%D and to the dems by 5600 votes. The only path to winning I see for Rs is to run the score up in Livingston/Jackson, take Northfield by a good margin, and win at least two of Lyndon/Dexter/Webster Townships to survive the massacre in the city.

HD-58 – Nate Shannon (D)

2002 – D – 51.32%, R – 48.66%

DRA Composite – 49.6-47.7%R

This was the one that surprised many including myself. Nate Shannon is a survivor of tough campaigns. Macomb has major infighting, and I think it cost us this seat. Shannon lost the Shelby Twp portion by 400, which is good by D standards. He won the Sterling Heights part by 600. There’s the game, as Warren wasn’t needed. He lost Utica by 200. That’s usually a close area. Shannon won Warren by 900. It ended up being a 1000 vote difference. If Macomb gets its act together, we should win this. That’s a big if.

HD-61 – Denise Mentzer (D)

2002 – D – 52.03%, R – 47.97%

DRA Composite – 50-47.3%D

Clinton Township has often been fools gold for Rs. Mentzer won it by about 600, even though the worst precincts are in a different district. Mt Clemens is a D base area and she won it by 1500. The Sterling Heights area went R by about 500, but that wasn’t going to make up for Mt Clemens. Rs have a chance if they win the Clinton Twp portion by 500 or so votes.

HD-73 – Julie Brixie (D)

2022 – D – 57.33%, R – 42.67%

DRA Composite – 54.4-42.8%D

Norm Shinkle ran a respectable campaign for this district and kept Brixie under 60% in a disastrous year in Whitmer’s home of Ingham County. The problem here is MSU campus in East Lansing (2400 vote deficit), and Meridian Twp South of GR (5100 vote deficit). The only chance for an upset here is for Rs to run up the score in the rural areas, win Mason (leans D), win Williamston (leans D), win Alaiedon Twp (swingish), and lose by less in Meridian and East Lansing. That likely only happens in a 2010 type wave year.

HD-76 – Angela Witwer (D)

2022 – D – 55.75%, R – 44.25%

DRA Composite – 50.3-46.6%D

Witwer was a strong incumbent, although is now caught up in a lobbyist scandal. Tom Barrett had a seat similar to this from 2014-2018. This is the swingiest of swing seats and hasn’t changed much with redistricting. R’s had it from 2010-2012. D’s had it from 2012-2014 with Theresa Abed. Tom Barrett defeated Abed in 2014 and held it until he ran for St Senate in 2018. Angela Witwer won it narrowly twice and by a bigger margin last time when the Rs didn’t spend money there. The D base is Delta Township and the small part of Lansing in this district. The swing areas are Charlotte City and Windsor Twp. Rs need to run up the score the rurals, win Windsor Twp and Charlotte (Barrett did in 2014), and not get destroyed in Delta Township.

HD-80 – Phil Skaggs (D)

2022 – D – 56.30%, R – 43.70%

DRA Composite – 53.8-43.5%D

The Grand Rapids area was gerrymandered badly and Skaggs is a particularly nasty dem which is what I expect to come out of the Rich White Liberal enclave of East Grand Rapids. Skaggs lost Casecade Twp by 900, but it didn’t matter. He took East Grand Rapids by 2000, GR City portion by 700, GR Township portion by 250, and Kentwood by 3200. This district would have been competitive in 2012, but it’s lean dem today.

HD-81 – Rachel Hood (D)

2022 – D – 55.57%, R – 44.33%

DRA Composite – 51.8-44.9%D

GR seat 2. This attaches part of the City of Grand Rapids with suburbs. R’s won Ada by 800, GR Twp portion by 150, and the Plainfield Twp portion by 500. That’s underwhelming, but still a win. Hood won GR City portion by 5700. It wasn’t close.

HD-83 – John Fitzgerald (D)

2022 – D – 52.76%, R – 44.64%

DRA Composite – 50.5-45.4%D

If there’s one GR area seat where I like our odds for an upset, it’s this one – but that’s if we have a good Hispanic (preferably Mexican) candidate. This was also sneakily gerrymandered. The Rs did take the one Byron Twp precinct by 25. The dems took Wyoming by 1500. The sneakily gerrymandered part is the 2 1/3 Grand Rapids City precincts there. The dems took that by 900 – not much less than Wyoming overall. This is winnable if Rs can make enough inroads with Mexicans and thread the needle.

HD-84 – Carol Glanville (D)

2022 – D – 55.56%, R – 44.44%D

DRA Composite – 50.3-45.9%D

Thank you Robert RJ Regan for your special election run earlier this year. /sarcasm. That put us in a hole here going into the general. The GR portion is always going to be tough. R’s lost it by 6400. R’s took Grandville by 1000 and Walker by 900. That’s not good enough.

HD-103 – Betsy Coffia (D)

2022 – D – 49.84%, R – 48.47%

DRA Composite – 48.8-48.6%D

The dems got their perfect gerrymander here. Blueing Leelanau County combined with Traverse City without the blood red rural portions of Grand Traverse County. A lot of Chicago and Ann Arbor retirees are moving to Traverse City and Leelanau County. Traverse City also has a small college which impacts things as well. It’s a growing area with expensive homes and not a ton of high paying jobs. The old saying is that “you pay for the view” meaning Lake Michigan or Grand Traverse Bay. It’s a beautiful area, but a lot of people aren’t fans of the new crowd and townie/tourist clashes occur. Coffia beat sort-of-incumbent Jack O’Malley by 700 votes. O’Malley is a moderate who represented Leelanau and Benzie, but not Traverse County. O’Malley lost Leelanu by 38 votes and won the Benzie part by 350. The Grand Traverse County portion did him in. He lost critical Garfield Township narrowly, lost Peninsula Twp narrowly (Old Mission), and got blown out of the water in Traverse City. Traverse City went 65% for Biden which makes Garfield, Elmwood Twp (in Leelanau), Old Mission Peninsula, East Bay, and Acme critical areas to win and/or run up the score.

HD-109 – Jenn Hill (D)

2022 – D – 52.98%, R – 47.02%

DRA Composite – 50.4-46.7%

I’m not an expert on this district. The only place I’ve been to in this district is Munising. It may be my state, but Marquette is about the same drive for me as Knoxville, TN is.

The R’s went for a seat similar to this a few times, which was unthinkable until 2016. It was forever a “safe” democrat seat, and now is down to a lean democrat area. Jenn Hill is probably way too liberal for MOST of the district, but that might not matter. Alger County is historically blue, but flipped R in 2012 even with Romney. Trump won every part of Alger in 2020 and all except Grand Island and Mathias Twp in 2016. Hill lost Mathias, tied Grand Island, and won Munising big. Hill lost Alger County by a little less than 600 votes. The R’s cleaned up the Baraga County portion except Spurr Township (Trump/Biden Township), losing that by 11 votes. R’s won it by about 900 votes. The Dickinson County portion was a flat out blowout for Rs. About 1100 votes. That leaves about a 2600 cushion going into Marquette County. That’s not good enough. Hill won Marquette County by about 5000 votes. That’s your difference.

Marquette is still a D stronghold in my opinion. It’s consistently in the low-mid 40’s with Rs unable to get that last 6-7%. Trump got 43 and 44% in Marquette County – actually winning less townships with 44% than with 43% due to 3rd party votes. He did 1-2% better than Romney and 5-6% better than McCain. Bush got 43 and 45% in Marquette County. Third party votes mask some of the R weaknesses in Marquette County. Marquette has long been the most liberal part of the UP. Beyond the legacy UP Democrat “pork barrel” tradition you see with Gogebic County, Ishpeming and Negaunee are still union strongholds (and likely Marquette commuters today). Marquette itself is the home of Northern Michigan University. It’s a college town as well as a union town.

Hill won Champion Twp, Chocolay Twp (Trump/Biden), Ishpeming (blowout win), Ishpeming Twp (Trump won twice), Marquette (probably 70% and by 2400 votes), Marquette Twp (big), Negaunee (big), Negaunee Twp (Trump/Biden), Powell Twp (Trump/Biden), Richmond Twp (big), and Tilden Twp (Trump twice). If R’s are going to flip this district, they need a candidate to run the score up in the rest of the counties, and probably win most if not all of the areas Trump won at least once to have a chance. R’s need to also “lose by less” in Marquette, Ishpeming, and Negaunee, as well as their neighboring townships. It’s possible, but it won’t be easy,. especially with Northern Michigan University.

OVERALL

If the R’s keep all their districts, they need to win two. If they lost one (like the Jackson/Chelsea district they were gifted in 2022,) they would need three to get majority. I’d go on offense anywhere it is fesible, but I’d certainly target Jaime Churches (Downriver), Nate Shannon (Macomb), and Angela Witwer (lobbyist scandal) for starters. Joey Andrews could be a good target over the local control votes recently. Conlin and Haadsma are beatable as well if the base gets out and vote. There’s a path to win the majority. Caucus groups (much more important than MRP who hasn’t been historically involved in State Rep races), are going to be big here. Candidate quality will also be big. I think we can flip the State House thanks to overreach, but the Top of the Ticket will be the main factor – good and bad.