Here are our most current official RRH Elections Race Rankings and Ratings: The ratings represent the moderators’ opinion of the races averaged together; you can think of them as our gestalt assessment of all the possible outcomes of the race weighted by how likely each outcome is to occur. Rankings go from #1 most likely to flip to the highest as least likely to flip.
Senate Rankings: (Updated March 23, next update July 20):
Prior updates: January 2023 || April 2023 || July 2023 || October 2023 || January 2024 || March 2024
| Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA (OPEN) CT (Murphy) DE (OPEN) HI (Hirono) ME (King*) MA (Warren) MN (Klobuchar) NY (Gillibrand) RI (Whitehouse) VT (Sanders*) WA (Cantwell) |
MD (OPEN) NJ (OPEN) NM (Heinrich) VA (Kaine) |
AZ (OPEN) MI (OPEN) NV (Rosen) PA (Casey) WI (Baldwin) |
MT (Tester) OH (Brown) |
TX (Cruz) | FL (R. Scott) MO (Hawley) |
IN (OPEN) MS (Wicker) NE-F (Fischer) NE-R (Ricketts) ND (Cramer) TN (Blackburn) UT (OPEN) WV (OPEN) WY (Barasso) |
Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. * denotes a Dem-caucusing Independent, ^ denotes a seat favored to flip from Independent to a partisan member of the same caucus. RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in Senate seats of between R+1 and R+3 in 2024.
Governor Rankings: (Updated July 6, next update September 2024):
Prior updates: January 2023 || April 2023 || July 2023 || September 2023 || December 2023 || March 2024 || July 2024
| Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE (OPEN) | NJ ’25 (OPEN) WA (OPEN) |
NH (OPEN) NC (OPEN) VA ’25 (OPEN) |
IN (OPEN) MO (OPEN) |
MT (Gianforte) ND (OPEN) UT (Cox) VT (Scott) WV (OPEN) |
Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats in 2023-2024 of between R+0 and R+2.
House Ratings: (Updated June 29; next update September 2024)
Prior updates: March 2023 || September 2023 || January 2024 || June 2024
| Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-2 (OPEN) AZ-4 (Stanton) CA-21 (Costa) CA-49 (Levin) FL-9 (Soto) FL-23 (Moskowitz) KS-3 (Davids) MD-6 (OPEN) MI-3 (Scholten) NJ-3 (OPEN) NY-3 (Suozzi) OH-1 (Landsman) OR-4 (Hoyle) OR-6 (Salinas) VA-10 (Wexton) WA-6 (OPEN) WA-8 (Schrier) |
AK-AL (Peltola) CA-9 (Harder) CO-8 (Caraveo) CT-5 (Hayes) IL-17 (Sorensen) IN-1 (Mrvan) ME-2 (Golden) MN-2 (Craig) NV-1 (Titus) NV-3 (Susie Lee) NV-4 (Horsford) NH-1 (Pappas) NH-2 (OPEN) NY-18 (Ryan) OH-13 (Sykes) PA-17 (DeLuzio) TX-28 (Cuellar) TX-34 (V. Gonzalez) |
AZ-1 (Schweikert) AZ-6 (Ciscomani) CA-13 (Duarte) CA-27 (M. Garcia) CA-41 (Calvert) CA-47 (OPEN) MI-7 (OPEN) MI-8 (OPEN) NM-2 (Vasquez) NY-4 (D’Esposito) NY-17 (Lawler) NY-19 (Molinaro) NY-22 (B. Williams) NC-1 (Don Davis) OH-9 (Kaptur) OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer) PA-7 (Wild) PA-8 (Cartwright) VA-7 (OPEN) WA-3 (Gluesenkamp-Perez) |
CA-3 (Kiley) CA-22 (Valadao) CA-45 (Steel) CO-3 (OPEN) FL-13 (Luna) IA-1 (Miller-Meeks) IA-3 (Nunn) MI-10 (James) MT-1 (Zinke) NE-2 (Bacon) NJ-7 (Kean) NY-1 (LaLota) VA-2 (Kiggans) WI-1 (Steil) WI-3 (Van Orden) |
AZ-2 (Crane) CA-40 (Y. Kim) FL-15 (L. Lee) FL-27 (Salazar) FL-28 (Gimenez) IA-2 (Hinson) KS-2 (OPEN) MI-4 (Huizenga) MO-2 (Wagner) NJ-2 (Van Drew) NY-2 (Garbarino) NY-11 (Malliotakis) NC-11 (Edwards) OH-7 (Max Miller) OH-15 (Carey) PA-1 (Fitzpatrick) PA-10 (Perry) SC-1 (Mace) TN-5 (Ogles) TX-15 (De La Cruz) TX-23 (T. Gonzales) VA-1 (Wittman) WA-5 (OPEN) WI-8 (VACANT) |
Safe D Pickups: LA-6 (OPEN) || Safe R Pickups: NC-6 (OPEN), NC-13 (OPEN), NC-14 (OPEN)
Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in House seats of between R+11 and D+9 in 2024.
Row Officer Ratings: (Updated July 6; next update September 2024)
Prior updates: December 2023 || July 2024
| Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE-Ins (Navarro) VT-AG (Clark) VT-Aud (Hoffer) VT-SoS (Copeland-Hanzas) VT-Treas (Pieciak) WA-Aud (McCarthy) WA-LG (Heck) WA-SoS (Hobbs) WA-Supt (Reykdal) WA-Treas (Pellicciotti) |
DE-LG (OPEN) OR-AG (OPEN) OR-SoS (OPEN) OR-Treas (OPEN) VT-LG (Zuckerman) WA-AG (OPEN) WA-Ins (OPEN) WI-Supt ’25 (Underly) |
NC-SoS (Marshall) NC-Supt (OPEN) WA-Lands (OPEN) |
NC-AG (OPEN) NC-Aud (Holmes) NC-Lab (OPEN) NC-Treas (OPEN) PA-AG (OPEN) PA-Aud (DeFoor) PA-Treas (Garrity) VA-AG ’25 (Miyares) VA-LG ’25 (Sears) |
MT-Supt (OPEN) NC-Ins (Causey) |
IN-AG (Rokita) MO-AG (Bailey) MO-LG (OPEN) MO-SoS (OPEN) MO-Treas (Malek) MT-AG (Knudsen) MT-Ins (OPEN) MT-SoS (Jacobsen) NC-Agri (Troxler) |
AR-Treas (OPEN) ND-Aud (Gallion) ND-Ins (Godfread) ND-Supt (Baesler) ND-Treas (Beadle) UT-AG (OPEN) UT-Aud (Dougall) UT-Treas (Oaks) WV-AG (OPEN) WV-Agri (Leonhardt) WV-Aud (OPEN) WV-SoS (OPEN) WV-Treas (OPEN) |
Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. (*) denotes a formally non-partisan race.