Sea level anomaly extremes impact tropical Pacific islands, often with too little warning to mitigate risks. By compiling monthly sea level anomaly predictions from multiple statistical and dynamical (coupled ocean-atmosphere) models, which are typically skillful out to at least 6 months in the tropical Pacific, improved future outlooks are achieved. We deliver an experimental real-time forecast of monthly mean sea level anomalies and information that can be used to reduce impacts associated with sea level extremes.

The Multi-model Ensemble Sea Level Forecasts for Tropical Pacific Islands product was developed by a partnership between scientists at the UHSLC, NOAA’s NCEI (Pacific Region) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology seasonal forecasting operations, and New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. This partnership combines resources to deliver the most recently available sea level predictions from multiple forecast models. By clicking on the map and forecast tab, you can check which models are available this month for each station.