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Earth and Mars: Evolution of Atmospheres and Surface Temperatures -- Sagan and Mullen 177 (4043): 52 -- Science
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Science 7 July 1972:
Vol. 177. no. 4043, pp. 52 - 56
DOI: 10.1126/science.177.4043.52
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Articles

Earth and Mars: Evolution of Atmospheres and Surface Temperatures

Carl Sagan 1 and George Mullen 1

1 Laboratory for Planetary Studies, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

Solar evolution implies, for contemporary albedos and atmospheric composition, global mean temperatures below the freezing point of seawater less than 2.3 aeons ago, contrary to geologic and paleontological evidence. Ammonia mixing ratios of the order of a few parts per million in the middle Precambrian atmosphere resolve this and other problems. Possible temperature evolutionary tracks for Earth and Mars are described. A runaway greenhouse efect will occur on Earth about 4.5 aeons from now, when clement conditions will prevail on Mars.


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