President Biden has halted the slide in his job approval rating after taking a hit over the tumultuous exit from Afghanistan, Covid resurgence and uneven economic recovery, the October IBD/TIPP Poll finds. However, Biden's job approval among Democrats, while still elevated, is leaking air as he seeks consensus with moderates to advance his agenda.
XBiden Job Approval
IBD/TIPP's Biden job approval level recovered to 52.2 — the share of adults who approve as a percentage of those who offer a firm opinion — from 50.7 in early September. Biden's job approval rating started at 64.6 in February, following his inauguration.
The October IBD/TIPP Poll finds that 44% of adults approve of how President Biden is handling his job, unchanged from September. Disapproval of Biden's job performance eased to 40%, after reaching 43% the prior month. The early August IBD/TIPP Poll showed Biden still enjoying relatively broad approval, 52%-34%.
Independents now disapprove of Biden's job performance by 45%-32%, a modest improvement over September's 50%-33% disapproval. In August, Biden enjoyed a 42%-33% job approval among independents.
Among Democrats, Biden's job approval slipped to 75%-11% in October from 79%-9% in September and 83%-6% in August.
President Biden came into office inoculated from hyperpartisanship by the arrival of the vaccine and a second wave of federal fiscal support. But his immunity appears to have lapsed amid doubts about his leadership. In October, just 19% of respondents characterized Biden's leadership as very strong, down from 21% the prior month. Meanwhile, 26% saw his leadership as very weak vs. 29% in September.
Approval Of President Biden's Policies
Just 30% of American adults rate Biden's handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan as good or excellent, while 48% say it was poor or unacceptable.
Yet, Biden's deteriorating job approval also reflects troubles on the home front.
Biden's approval rating on his handling of the economy remains underwater: 40% give him negative marks and 35% say he deserves a good grade, little changed from September's 41%-37% split. Biden has seen a sharp reversal since August, when Americans approved of his economic stewardship, 48%-30%.
Among Democrats, 62% rate Biden's handling of the economy as good or better, while 12% see it as poor or worse. His standing continued to slip from 69%-10% in September and 77%-3% in August.
As the latest Covid wave fueled by the delta variant has begun to subside, approval of Biden's handling of the pandemic has firmed, with 45% giving him good grades and 32% failing marks. That compares to 46%-35% in September and 53%-28% in August.
Financial Stress
Support for Biden's economic performance has been hurt by rising financial stress, but that stopped getting worse over the past month. The IBD/TIPP Financial Related Stress Index eased nine-tenths of a point to 64, though it was still the second highest reading of the year. Readings above 50 indicate rising stress. The financial stress index fell to a Covid-era low of 56.8 in early April, after most Americans received their third stimulus check.
Rising stress partly reflects the expiration of pandemic-related jobless benefits, including an extra $300 in weekly support. Those benefits expired as Covid has slowed hiring. The August jobs report showed the U.S. economy added back just 235,000 jobs in August. However, wage growth accelerated to 4.3%.
The surge in inflation also has likely contributed to rising financial stress. The consumer price index rose 5.3% from a year ago in August. The IBD/TIPP Poll finds that 81% of Americans are concerned about the path of inflation over the next 12 months.
How Biden Job Approval Rating Stacks Up
Biden's approval remains above President Trump's peak job approval. Trump's approval rating got as high as 50.1 in April 2020, in the early weeks of the coronavirus lockdown after Congress had passed a massive rescue package. But he exited office with a 43.5 approval rating in the January IBD/TIPP Poll.
President Obama's IBD/TIPP job approval, which started at 75.3, was at 54.9 at this point in his presidency, but continued to soften as he ramped up his health care push.
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Investors Still Back Biden
Among non-investors who are registered to vote, 43% disapprove of Biden's job performance, while 38% approve. However, investors continue to back Biden, 57%-35%. IBD/TIPP counts as investors those respondents who say they have at least $10,000 in household-owned mutual funds or equities.
The S&P 500 fell nearly 5% in September amid concern over rising interest rates and China's economy, but it was the first down month since January. Through Friday's close, the S&P 500 is up 16% for the year. Make sure to read IBD's daily afternoon The Big Picture column to get the latest read on the prevailing market trend and whether investors have a green light to buy quality stocks flashing a buy point.
President Biden has called for major increases in tax rates on capital gains, dividends and corporate income. However, it's unclear what will pass as centrist Democrats insist on shrinking the size of the proposed $3.5-trillion social-spending reconciliation package. Progressives forced a delay in voting on a bipartisan infrastructure bill until there's more progress on the reconciliation bill.
The October IBD/TIPP Poll reflects online surveys of 1,308 adults from Sept. 29-Oct. 2. The results come with a credibility interval of +/- 2.8 points.
Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.
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