So what have we learned?
In late December, when I asked then-GOP presidential hopeful Chris Christie why he wanted to become the standard bearer of a party that has morphed from one about conservative policies into one simply for and about Donald Trump and Trumpism, he argued with my premise.
“My job is not to follow polls. My job is to change them,” he answered during a discussion with the Globe’s editorial board.
He said he was uninterested in the approach challengers like Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy were taking by “trying to sound just like Trump, except not as crazy.”
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“How’s that working?” Christie quipped.
Fast forward to the present, and it’s clear that, as I suggested, the primary didn’t work out well for anyone not named Trump, Christie included. Even Haley, who has yet to suspend her bid, is all but sure to suffer an embarrassing defeat to Trump in her home state of South Carolina. There isn’t and never was a path for her or any of Trump’s Republican challengers. Trump had paved it over before the primary season even started. The idea of a Trump alternative in the GOP race, for those who wished for one, was just that: wishful thinking.
But it doesn’t mean that the GOP primaries haven’t taught us anything. Let’s break down what we have learned.
The Republican Party is all about Trump, for better or for worse
By and large, the choice for voters wasn’t among the candidates. It was for or against Trump. Within the GOP, that means certain victory for Trump, despite the boatloads of baggage he brings, from the 91 criminal counts and multiple civil actions against him to his dangerous embrace of authoritarianism and his unhinged late-night social media posts attacking everyone from his political opponents to the judges overseeing his legal matters. Even confusing Haley for Representative Nancy Pelosi while trying to deflect his responsibility for the attack on the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, won’t keep him from becoming the party’s presidential nominee.
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But in a general election, the very for-or-against-Trump choice voters face very well may sink him. Just as he was invincible in the primary, his continued chaotic communications, outbursts — in and out of the courtroom — and other outlandish behavior make him eminently beatable in the general.
Trump drove high turnout, which can work against him
This was one of the most surprising data points to me: Turnout for the New Hampshire primary hit a record high. It shouldn’t have come as a complete shock; one of Trump’s biggest political advantages is that he gets out his supporters.
But exit polling also revealed that something else was happening — more people were motivated to turn out to vote against him too. It wasn’t enough for him to lose the nomination, but if that same dynamic plays out in the general election, Trump’s path to victory shrinks so dramatically that it’s hard to see how he slips through it.
And if President Biden successfully harnesses that anti-Trump sentiment — particularly among young voters and women who were galvanized in 2022 after the Supreme Court, with the help of three Trump-appointed justices, overturned Roe v. Wade — Trump won’t have a shot. Biden needs to be clear with those voters: The Supreme Court is unlikely to kick Trump off the ballot, but voters can block his return to the White House.
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Haley can’t help herself, but she can hurt Trump
Here’s something Christie didn’t get quite right when answering my question: Being just Trumpy enough wasn’t enough to give Haley a path to the nomination, but it made the race in New Hampshire more competitive than polling suggested it would be.
She was able to peel off the votes of some disillusioned Trump voters in a way Christie’s full-frontal attack on Trump did not. And she has a way of infuriating him, bringing out the very negative qualities that general election voters are growing tired of. The longer she stays in the race, the more wounded Trump will be when he emerges from the primary season.
Trump is top-of-ticket poison
You don’t have to believe me; believe the deep-pocketed GOP mega-donors who are so worried about the drag Trump will have down ballot that they are opting to focus their time and money on Senate and House GOP races and skip the big race altogether.
That presents an opportunity for Democrats in congressional races, if they choose to take it.
This column first appeared in The Primary Source, Globe Opinion’s free weekly newsletter about local and national politics. If you’d like to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here.
Kimberly Atkins Stohr is a columnist for the Globe. She may be reached at kimberly.atkinsstohr@globe.com. Follow her @KimberlyEAtkins.
