The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● NV-04: Donald Trump just endorsed former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, a conservative Democrat-turned-Republican, ahead of next week's primary to take on Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in Nevada's 4th Congressional District. But one diehard Trump fanatic was furious with his decision—and not because of Lee's previous service with the other party.
"Who the hell is advising President Trump on candidate endorsements?" far-right troll Laura Loomer wrote in a tweet that also contained a cringeworthy video of an interview Lee did with radio host Brian Shapiro in April.
When Shapiro asked the former mayor, "If [Trump's] a convicted felon, John, will you still support him for president?" Lee struggled to answer.
"That's a good question," Lee responded, before trailing off. "I haven't … That's a hard question, it really really is." Following several seconds of silence, Lee finally said, "I'm not going to answer that question." The audio from the full interview is here, with the relevant portion starting at the 4:05 mark.
While Loomer's clip ended there, Lee continued to try to formulate a response.
I'd have to see what he's convicted of. I really mean it. If I thought he was getting railroaded or something, or if was, I could sense it was evil, that would be one thing. But if there was a legitimate reason why you and I would go to jail for doing the same thing, that makes you really question it.
Loomer concluded her post, "Seriously, whoever is in charge of vetting for Donald Trump is trying to fuck him over. I’m going to tell him, and I’m going to make sure Donald Trump sees this video."
Lee's main intra-party foe, Air Force veteran David Flippo, previously shared the same clip Loomer put on blast, though Trump evidently did not see his post or care. Shapiro did, however, and castigated Flippo as "the same person who refuses to come in studio and answer any questions from me."
Whoever claims the GOP nod next week will face a difficult battle against Horsford in the 4th District, which is based in the northern Las Vegas area but also includes a slice of rural Nevada. Joe Biden carried the constituency 53-45 in 2020, while Horsford claimed reelection by a smaller 52-48 spread two years later.
In those midterms, major Republican groups spent almost $20 million targeting two neighboring House Democrats, Dina Titus and Susie Lee, but left Horsford alone. This time around, they seem even less optimistic. The Congressional Leadership Fund notably did not book any general election airtime in the Las Vegas media market, which covers all three of their constituencies, as part of its opening $140 million general election reservation.
That stance, of course, could change, and Democrats aren't taking any chances. The House Majority PAC reserved almost $7 million in Las Vegas two months ago. As we've written before, however, we won't know which Nevada incumbent—or incumbents—HMP is seeking to protect until ads actually start airing.
Election Recaps
● IA-01 (R): Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won a surprisingly weak 56-44 victory over David Pautsch, a Christian activist who brought in just $35,000 through May 15. Pautsch launched his effort in November by attacking the incumbent for her vote for the Respect for Marriage Act, which requires the federal government and the states to recognize same-sex and interracial marriages, and accusing her of also not being conservative enough on abortion and immigration.
Miller-Meeks will now face a general election rematch against former state Rep. Christina Bohannan in the 1st District, which is based in southeastern Iowa. Donald Trump carried this constituency by a small 51-48 margin in 2020, while Miller-Meeks beat Bohannan two years later 53-47 in what was a strong year for Hawkeye State Republicans.
● IA-04 (R): Rep. Randy Feenstra defeated Army veteran Kevin Virgil 60-40, which wasn't a particularly good primary showing for a seemingly secure incumbent. Unlike Miller-Meeks, however, Feenstra has nothing to worry about in the general election for his dark red western Iowa seat.
Virgil had the support of former Rep. Steve King, a white nationalist ally who lost renomination to Feenstra 46-36 in 2020 and who has seen his relevance in Hawkeye State politics fade further over the following years. The challenger also raised less than $90,000 through May 15.
● MT-02 (R): State Auditor Troy Downing defeated former Rep. Denny Rehberg 36-17 in the Republican primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale in this safely Republican seat in eastern Montana.
Downing enjoyed a wide financial edge over the rest of the field thanks in part to self-funding. The Air Force veteran was also the only candidate to benefit from the roughly $750,000 in outside spending that went into the race. Donald Trump backed Downing one day before the primary, and well after the auditor and his allies released a trio of unanswered polls showing him far ahead.
● NJ-Sen (D & R): Rep. Andy Kim easily beat labor leader Patricia Campos-Medina 75-16 to win the Democratic nomination for Senate.
On the Republican side, self-funding businessman Curtis Bashaw scored a 46-39 win over Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, who had Donald Trump's endorsement. Serrano Glassner's loss came one week after another Trump-backed candidate, David Covey, failed to unseat Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan in their GOP primary runoff. Bashaw, for his part, would be the state's first gay senator.
Kim and Bashaw are set to compete in a three-way general election against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who filed to run as an independent one day before the primary despite the fact that he's currently on trial for corruption. But while Republicans hope that Menendez—if he actually goes through with a bid—could take enough votes from Kim to give Bashaw an opening in this solidly blue state, the incumbent's horrible approval ratings will likely limit his appeal.
● NJ-03 (D): In a race between two members of the state Assembly, Herb Conaway defeated Carol Murphy 50-25 for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Andy Kim, who is running for Senate. Joe Biden carried this South Jersey seat 56-42 in 2020, making Conaway likely to become the first Black person to represent the area in the House.
Conaway enjoyed a wide fundraising advantage over Murphy and was also the only contender to benefit from serious outside spending. The assemblyman, who served as a physician in the Air Force, was aided by groups dedicated to electing Democratic veterans as well as 314 Action, which supports candidates with science backgrounds.
● NJ-08 (D): Freshman Rep. Rob Menendez fended off an intra-party challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla 54-36 in this safely blue Jersey City seat.
Bhalla had hoped that voters would be eager to punish the man he derided as the "entitled son of corrupt Bob 'Gold Bars' Menendez," even though the congressman was never implicated in the alleged crimes of his father and namesake. But the younger Menendez still enjoyed the support of state and national Democrats, and even some of his father's most ardent critics argued that he shouldn't be punished for the senator's alleged wrongdoing.
● NJ-09 (D): Veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell turned back Prospect Park Mayor Mohamed Khairullah 77-23. Joe Biden took this North Jersey seat 59-40 in 2020, so Pascrell should have no problem winning a 15th term in November. If he does, the 87-year-old incumbent would become the oldest member of the House in the 119th Congress. (California Rep. Grace Napolitano, who currently holds that title, is retiring.)
Governors
● NC-Gov: Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein has released his first TV ads for the general election against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who does not appear to have run any spots of his own in the three months since his primary victory. AdImpact reported that Stein's ad buy was for at least $339,000 but also that he has reserved $8 million through November.
The first commercial highlights Robinson's extremism on abortion by only using video clips of him speaking. Those segments include Robinson calling for an absolute abortion ban with no exception "for any reason" and subsequently stating that there can be "no compromise on abortion." The closing audio features Robinson castigating women by saying, "You weren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down. It's not your body anymore."
Stein's other commercial is a positive ad touting his record as attorney general. His accomplishments include clearing the backlog of rape kits so rapists can be brought to justice, taking on big pharmaceutical companies responsible for the opioid crisis, and working with members of both parties to get things done.
House
● CO-08: Donald Trump has endorsed state Rep. Gabe Evans ahead of the June 25 Republican primary, joining House Speaker Mike Johnson and other national Republicans who support Evans. He faces former state Rep. Janak Joshi, who won the state party's backing amid an intraparty squabble. The winner will face Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in this swingy district north of Denver.
● NY-16, NY-17: Former Rep. Mondaire Jones on Monday endorsed Westchester County Executive George Latimer's bid to unseat Jones' former colleague and ally, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, ahead of the June 25 Democratic primary for the 16th District. Jones previously worked in Latimer's administration in the Westchester County Law Department, though the executive backed another candidate in his initial 2020 primary for the neighboring 17th District.
Jones is challenging GOP Rep. Mike Lawler for the 17th, and the New York Times' Nicholas Fandos notes that he may hope to benefit in a general election by separating himself from Bowman, who is an ardent critic of Israel's government. Lawler, writes Semafor's Kadia Goba, had already been making use of a 2020 Jones quote saying that "we need more people like Bowman in Congress."
Jones, who represented about a quarter of the 16th District from 2021 to 2023, also used his Monday announcement to push back on Bowman's argument that Latimer, who is white, has tried to caricature the incumbent as an "angry Black man." Jones, who is also Black, declared, "George Latimer is not a racist."
The endorsement comes at a time when this already expensive race is getting still more pricey. AdImpact says that AIPAC's United Democracy Project has spent or reserved an enormous $10.6 million in commercials to beat Bowman, with Politico's Emily Ngo saying that $1.7 million of that is for this week alone.
UDP's newest spot once again goes after the incumbent for voting against the Biden administration's infrastructure and debt limit bill, and it accuses Bowman of calling the president a "liar." The spot cites a 2021 piece from The Independent where the congressman faulted Biden for not doing enough for police reform, saying, "Something needs to be done about that, and the president needs to be more of a leader on that–it was maybe even as big of a lie as the student loan lie.”
AdImpact also relays that Bowman's campaign has spent or reserved $1.2 million in advertising, compared to $967,000 for Latimer. According to the firm, Bowman had dramatically increased the size of his buy from $171,000 almost three weeks ago, while his opponent hasn't directed any additional money into ads.
● PA-10: Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson has publicized a Normington Petts poll that shows her trailing just 51-48 against Republican Rep. Scott Perry in the Harrisburg-area 10th District. That margin is similar to Perry's 45-43 lead in Stelson's late-April internal poll from Public Policy Polling.
This latest poll shows Trump leading 52-44 over Biden in a district Trump carried 51-47 in 2020. It also finds Democratic Sen. Bob Casey tied 49-49 with Republican Dave McCormick: According to VEST data on Dave's Redistricting App, Casey carried this constituency by a nearly identical 49.3-48.7 margin amid his 56-43 statewide victory in 2018.
● SC-01: Republican Gov. Henry McMaster has endorsed Rep. Nancy Mace ahead of the June 11 Republican primary for the coastal 1st District. However, while the governor put out a video voicing his support, his team tells the Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd that he doesn't plan to do any events for her.
Opposing Mace is longtime 2nd District Rep. Joe Wilson, who has backed her main challenger, former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. Wilson previously backed Mace's 2022 primary opponent, former state Rep. Katie Arrington, who lost 53-45 last cycle.
● VA-05: Embattled incumbent Bob Good this week earned the backing of fellow Rep. Ben Cline, who represents the neighboring 6th District, ahead of his June 18 Republican primary against state Sen. John McGuire, who recently picked up a far more prominent endorsement from Donald Trump. Good chairs the far-right House Freedom Caucus, and Cline is likewise a member.
Ballot Measures
● AZ Ballot: Republican firm Noble Predictive Insights conducted a poll last month that finds a 41-41 tie for a proposed abortion rights amendment that is likely to qualify for November's ballot. Previous releases from this same poll showed Trump leading Biden 44-41 in a two-way contest and 43-36 with third-party candidates included. However, Democrat Ruben Gallego led 46-36 against Republican Kari Lake for Senate.
● LA Ballot: Louisiana's legislative session ended Monday without the Senate passing legislation to authorize a constitutional convention, but that doesn't necessarily mean the end of GOP Gov. Jeff Landry's plan to replace the current state constitution with a new governing document.
Senate President Cameron Henry told Fox 8 that, while his members still had "unanswered" questions about what the governor wants to do, that could change should Landry call a special session. "We can still work towards that in June and July, we don’t need legislation to do that," Henry said, adding, "We just need members who are willing and have the desire and, more importantly, have the ability to come back to Baton Rouge and work on it."
That last part, however, may not be so easy. "What folks have to remember back home is that we’ve been here since January," continued Henry. "And, to the majority of the members—overwhelming majority of members—they have a family, they have responsibilities back home and it’s time for members to go back home."
● SD Ballot: A Mason-Dixon poll taken last month for the University of South Dakota shows a wide 53-35 lead for an abortion rights amendment that will appear before voters this November. This is the first publicly available poll since the initiative qualified for the ballot last month.
Poll Pile
- MI-Sen: Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University: Elissa Slotkin (D): 43, Mike Rogers (R): 42 (47-46 Biden in two-way, 44-43 Biden with third-party candidates)
- PA-Sen: Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University: Bob Casey (D-inc): 49, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (47-45 Trump in two-way, 43-42 Biden with third-party candidates)
- NC-Gov: North Star Opinion Research (R) for American Greatness: Mark Robinson (R): 44, Josh Stein (D): 42 (49-41 Trump in two-way, 44-32 Trump with third-party candidates)
Ad Roundup
Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.
Campaign Action
