Annual Energy Outlook 2013

 

The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2013 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies.

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Changes from AEO2012

Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case (April 2013):

The AEO2013 Reference case included as part of this complete report, released in April 2013, was updated from the AEO2012 Reference case released in June 2012. The Reference case was updated to reflect new legislation or regulation enacted since that time or to incorporate modeling changes. Major changes made in the Reference case include:

• Extension of the projection period through 2040, an additional five years beyond AEO2012.
• Adoption of a new Liquid Fuels Market Module (LFMM) in place of the Petroleum Market Module used in earlier AEOs provides for more granular and integrated modeling of petroleum refineries and all other types of current and potential future liquid fuels production technologies. This allows more direct analysis and modeling of the regional supply and demand effects involving crude oil and other feedstocks, current and future processes, and marketing to consumers.
• A shift to the use of Brent spot price as the reference oil price. AEO2013 also presents the average West Texas Intermediate spot price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma, and includes the U.S. annual average refiners' acquisition cost of imported crude oil, which is more representative of the average cost of all crude oils used by domestic refiners.
• A shift from using regional natural gas wellhead prices to using representative regional natural gas spot prices as the basis of the natural gas supply price. Due to this change, the methodology for estimating the Henry Hub price was revised.
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