HURRICANES
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TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96): An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda continues to produce showers and thunderstorms north of its center. Although environmental conditions are not very favorable for development, a short-lived tropical depression can not be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, high, 70 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa over the next few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 40 percent.
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Kelly
Special Features
Potential Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A Central American Gyre (CAG) is gradually developing over Central America with a 1007 mb low pressure embedded along the monsoon trough near central Panama. A broad area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection encompasses much of the SW Caribbean Sea in association with this low. The low is forecast to drift northwestward across northern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle of next week. Aided by abundant tropical moisture, this system may produce significant rainfall near Panama through tonight, and Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua through Tuesday. Heavy rain may spread over central and northern Guatemala, western Honduras, Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Monday through Thursday. This will lead to an increased potential for life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these areas. In addition, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely for form as the system moves slowly north across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological agencies. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across El Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and southern Mexico.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then extends southwestward across 10N28W to 08N35W. An ITCZ curves northwestward from 08N35W to 10N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N E of 21W, from 14N to 17N between 34W and 39W, and from 09N to 16N between 43W and 48W.
See Special Features section above for information on a low pressure center along the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough and its associated convection.
Gulf Of Mexico
See Special Features section above for information on developing low pressure over the NW Caribbean and adjacent parts of Central America that may impact portions of Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Weak high pressure dominates, aside from a surface trough that has moved W offshore the Yucatan overnight. Dry conditions prevail with light to gentle E winds and seas of 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will gradually be replaced by the low pressure described in the Special Features section above.
Caribbean Sea
Please refer to the Special Features section above for potential heavy rainfall associated with a developing Central American Gyre (CAG).
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted at the southeastern basin. Mainly gentle E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, aside from the developing low pressure in the NW Caribbean, described in the Special Features section above, winds and seas will generally be moderate or less.
Atlantic Ocean
A 1007 mb low pressure centered near 26N56W is producing scattered moderate convection along with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft from 26N to 29N between 52W and 56W. This low (AL96) is in an unfavorable environment for development, but a short lived tropical depression cannot be ruled out of showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves N at 5 kt over the central subtropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours.
Farther E, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are centered near 26N42W, with 1007 mb. This low is no longer producing in convection, but a broad area of fresh SE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft extend N of the low, N of 22N between 36W and 42W.
A weak surface trough stretches from N of 31N70W to just NE of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of this trough axis, and fresh N winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted W of the trough, N of 29N, extending W to 78W.
For the remainder of the basin, weak high pressure is leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, except N of the monsoon trough, where moderate trades and seas to 6 ft prevail.
A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa over the next f ew days. Gradual development of this wave is possible as it moves W, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the system moves across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
For the forecast W of 55W, a weak cold front will move off the SE coast of the US this afternoon, then slowly move across the waters N of 25N through Mon night.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik
