A week after talks between the Padres and White Sox regarding James Shields began gaining “significant momentum,” the two sides have officially reached a deal. The veteran right-hander and cash (reportedly $31MM of the remaining $58MM on his contract) will head to Chicago in exchange for fellow righty Erik Johnson and shortstop prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres general manager A.J. Preller announced.
Since beginning the season with a red-hot 19-8 mark, the White Sox have fallen to 29-26 and have dropped to third place in the AL Central, though they’re only 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Royals. While their starters entered Saturday with the majors’ eighth-lowest ERA (3.61) and seventh-best fWAR (5.7), their pre-Shields rotation was a top-heavy group. Aside from superstar Chris Sale and the underrated Jose Quintana, who has posted ace-like numbers this year, the White Sox haven’t gotten overly impressive production from any of their other starters.
With Shields aboard, the expectation is that either Mat Latos or Miguel Gonzalez will lose his spot in the rotation. Regardless of whether the White Sox demote Latos or Gonzalez, their top four will likely consist of Sale, Quintana, Shields and Carlos Rodon as long as all four are healthy. Whether Shields will stay in that top four beyond 2016 is up in the air, though, as he could opt out of the final two years of his contract at season’s end. That would mean leaving $42MM on the table, however.
Shields, 34, isn’t the pitcher he was during his best years with the Rays and Royals, but he remains a competent innings eater who’s on pace to exceed the 200-inning plateau and surpass the 30-start barrier for the 11th straight season. That aside, Shields does come with red flags. After a dreadful final start with the Padres, Shields’ ERA (4.28) is at its highest since 2010. Further, his strikeout rate – which spiked to a personal-best 9.61 per nine innings last year – has regressed to 7.62 (closer to his 7.84 career average) and the control that he displayed in his earlier days has declined. Shields’ walk rate is at 3.61 per nine innings, which is in line with last year’s 3.6, and his velocity has dipped. To Shields’ credit, he has long been a capable ground-ball generator – at 48 percent this year, there’s no sign he’s slowing down in that area. That should help his cause as he shifts to the hitter-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, but he does have the third-highest home run rate among qualified starters since last season (16.9 percent).
For the Padres, this is undoubtedly a disappointing ending to a short-lived experiment. Shields joined the Friars on a lucrative long-term deal as a free agent in 2015, at which point the club gave up the 13th overall pick in that June’s draft to sign him. With Shields in the fold, the Padres had designs on competing for a playoff spot. They instead finished a disappointing 74-88, though, and have begun this season 22-34. San Diego is now rebuilding, so keeping Shields around wouldn’t have made sense.
The 26-year-old Johnson, who’s the more established player the Padres got for Shields, could figure into their rotation at some point. Johnson has posted a 4.50 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 across 98 major league innings. In a 523 2/3-frame minor league sample size, Johnson’s strikeout rate (7.8) hasn’t looked much different, though he has walked fewer batters (3.1) while working to a terrific 3.23 ERA.
Tatis, meanwhile, signed with the White Sox for $700K as a 16-year-old last summer. The Dominican native is the son of former big leaguer Fernando Tatis, and Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote at the time of his signing that the 6-foot-1, 175-pounder pairs power potential on offense with a good arm on defense. Tatis, therefore, could potentially serve as a third baseman or outfielder in the majors.
Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported May 28 that the two teams were discussing a Shields trade, and he confirmed the return for the Padres today. Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted earlier today that a deal was close. FanRag Sports Jon Heyman then reported that the framework of a deal was agreed upon. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago had Johnson going to San Diego. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reported that the trade was done. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the amount of money the White Sox will receive in the trade.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Lets make this a good trade to help the Padres.
thats great
The white sox just cleaned out heir minor league system again. Every year or two they give their minors an enema because they discover there’s no talent there. SD will find out Johnson pitches scared in the majors. Enjoy!
What are you talking about??
The sox minor league system is an embarrassment! Who was the last position player to be brought up through their system? Gordon Beckham? He was a real help. Williams and company are a joke. No accountability. Welcome to The country club Mr Shields.
Trayce Thompson was brought up through their system last year.
Johnson is going to play better in a pitcher friendly park and the national league. did you see what balsely has done for Pomeranz?
And thank you Williams and Hahn for trading the only non pitcher that was home grown that could’ve started for the sox. They do NOT know how to build a team. Ventura is horrible, but Williams and Hahn are more to blame for many reasons.
Come on Diamondbacks lets get him!
Ya great idea. A HR susceptible pitcher who struggled in pitcher friendly petco park, will do better in the thin air of arizona. I also dont know why cws wants him, they have a small field.
He hasn’t struggled at Petco… He has a 3.58 ERA at home this year and a 5.16 on the road. Last year, he had a 3.29 at home and 4.50 on the road.
They want him because he’s most likely better than what they have in the back of the rotation currently, and they know he can eat up innings worst case scenario. Add that to the fact that they gave up basically nothing to get him, and it completely makes sense. That being said, starting pitching isn’t even close to their biggest issue.
If they weren’t in the same division he’d be going to the Giants. They have covet him for a long time just like they did Shark.
That’s before he turned terrible. I think he’s hurt. Not sure the Giants are ready to give up on Peavy.
The good part for the Padres is getting out from underneath that contract. Wouldn’t expect much talent coming back unless SD is willing to eat a bunch of salary.
Charlie. What happens if Shields decides to opt out at the end of 2016 after San Diego having agreed to pay 29 million to the other team to cover his future salaries?
If he does opt out of the contract he’s not gonna get what he signed for last season. But the white sox adding shields with sale quintana and rodon gives them a solid rotation from top to bottom. Mat Latos got off to a strong start but has struggled his last few starts. I wonder when Fulmer will be ready
Carson Fulmer likely won’t be ready for the White Sox rotation until at least 2017. He is struggling with his command in his first full professional season as a starting pitcher at AA Birmingham. He is also on an innings limit coming out of college last year and likely will have surpassed those numbers come September anyway, meaning a promotion when MLB rosters expand is also unlikely.
Fulmer’s best chance of seeing any action with the White Sox this season would be for the organization to shift him to a relief role at some point this summer. The White Sox do have a history of first promoting college starting pitchers to their bullpen before giving them a spot in the rotation. They did this with Chris Sale for for 1+ seasons starting back in 2010 and repeated the trend briefly last year with Carlos Rodon.
Fulmer did have more experience as a relief pitcher in college than either Sale and especially Rodon. He was in Vanderbilt’s bullpen to begin his NCAA career and their closer as recently as the first portion of his sophomore season before getting promoted to the starting rotation where he helped lead the Commodores to two consecutive World Series finals, including the championship in 2014.
exactly right. Fulmer had a nice outing last time out but had as many walks as strikeouts for the season before that. who knows if his long term future is in the rotation.
He’d be a fool to opt out
I totally agree with you. Nevertheless, the possibility exists since he might not like or feel confortable at his new team and opting out is an option thta he has under the original contract.
He’s either going to the White Sox, Red Sox, or the Orioles. All of those teams make sense for him. I personally like Baltimore for him.
Baltimore could of used him but what prospects do they have left? Christian Walker and Hunter Harvey?
Again the AL EAST is not pitcher friendly.
Gammons reminded folks of his career numbers at Fenway park in his latest article.. They were terrible and another reason (other than the awful contract) he’s not going to Boston.. 2-9 with a 5.50 ERA.. Shields could never pitch at Fenway, Maddon tried to skip his turn when he was young and decent. Why would Boston want the mid-late 30’s version getting over paid?
they have the farm system to make a trade for sonny gray or jose fernandez, but I doubt they would
Specially the Marlins they would ask the world for Jose Fernandez.
Shields has been decent this year minus his last start. Era ballooned from 3.00 to 4.00+ in 1 bad start.
The only thing I don’t like is that he will be going from a pitcher friendly park to a hitters park.
Petco is no longer a pitcher’s park.
False
True, it’s middle of the pack.
If you’re looking at the ESPN park factor for 2016, that’s only for 28 games.
It played at the same park factor for all of 2015 as well. Moving in the fences before the 2015 season seems to have moved Petco into the middle of the pack. Predictably, you notice the lights-out bullpens of the past aren’t happening for the Padres anymore and many more homers are being hit in Petco.
Sounds like it’s the White Sox. Jon Jay’s name is also being thrown around in a possible deal.
Kemp or Upton Jr. because can DH for White Sox’s. Ramirez back. Maybe a Bullpen piece. Maybe the White Sox include Garcia and others.
And no top prospects are involved in the deal according to Heyman.
no fulmer or anderson is involved I guess?
But, but but, they haven’t proven jack yet. They must be on the table. They must!
I think Anderson could be the real deal, If they didn’t think he was then he would be on the table , I thought they would of signed desmond to play short stop until anderson was ready but they signed j-roll instead
LOL, although some here here might not appreciate your sarcasm directed at a certain Padres fan commenter.
I know right. Where is that Padres fan that guaranteed any deal would cost Tim Anderson. And who was the guy that when I said a deal involving Tatis and Erik Johnson was being discussed told me I was wrong and that the Padres wouldn’t eat any money in that deal. Well, the Sox sent those two guys and the Pads ate somewhere around 50%.
Thanks, now go away.
So since the Pads sent so much money, IF Shields opted out, what would happen with the extra money?
Looks like the Padres wouldn’t have to pay the Sox for 2017 and 2018 if Shields were to opt out. I don’t see him opting out tho.
They would still get the money.
The commissioner needs to approve considerations larger than a certain amount(I think $3 mill ), but once it’s approved there’s no takesies backsies. Padres have to send the money regardless of the opt out…
There’s Extreme Homers in every fan base. You got to experience a few of the Padres ones.
I believe this is incorrect. There was a reason George Steinbrenner was pissed that A-Rod opted out of his Texas contract: the Yankees lost the money that they were receiving to cover A-Rod’s contract from the Rangers.
And then they resigned him anyways. But the Rangers didn’t contribute a cent to his new contract.
This is incorrect
Lol no kidding. We went from Anderson and Fulmer “should be able to get the deal done” to Johnson and Tatis Jr. with the Padres eating over half the salary. Common sense prevails.
Hey guys,
Don’t know much about baseball trades, but I’m reading that the Padres will probably eat 56mil. Shouldn’t Padres get more or a better prospect than Tatis Jr.? To me it seems like they are eating too much cash if Tatis Jr. Is the main piece in the trade.
There is no way they are eating 56 mil, that’s his entire contract remaining
Sorry I meant half 😀
They’re not eating that much, probably half of it. There’s an open market and plenty of need for SP around the league. Bottomline — if Shields was worth more the Padres would probably be able to find it. It’s no secret he’s being shopped around. He just doesn’t have much value, even for half of his contract.
Sorry I meant to say half*
Half of the 56mil*
Shields isn’t a frontline guy. He’s more of a solid #4 at this point of his career. Pads had to eat money to make him more attractive.
Nah, I think they got the right prospect in the deal.
i thought Erik Johnson was rumored to be involved in talks
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Erik Johnson was included in a trade for Shields. He has had some positive starts with the White Sox, especially in two separate September recalls. Unfortunately, he has struggled more often than not with his MLB opportunities, especially in spring training or to start a season.
Johnson was the International League pitcher of the year at AAA Charlotte last season but has been unable to repeat those efforts on the South Side with his most recent chances. He has been prone to the long ball, not a good thing at U.S. Cellular Field. Last season at AAA, Johnson was getting his usual SO’s and inducing more ground balls than in past years but at the MLB level he has been more of a fly ball pitcher. Not being able to keep the ball down and in the yard with the White Sox has effected his confidence at the MLB level. With a change of scenery to the N.L. and a pitcher friendly home park in San Diego, Johnson just might be able to regain enough confidence to help get him on track as an effective mid to back end of the rotation MLB starting pitcher.
Looks as if I may be right about Erik Johnson’s inclusion in the James Shields trade after all. It certainly makes a lot of sense for both sides.
As the article states, Shield lead the majors in giving up the long ball last year, while pitching in Petco. If your worried about Johnson at Cellular, good luck with Shields.
Seriously? If Preller is willing to eat half of Shields’ contract we better be getting Fulmer and/or Anderson! Idk why Preller is so desperate to get rid of Shields. Minus his most recent start he has been good this year.
Not possible man. He’s got a 4.28 ERA and a 4.42 FIP, and he wasn’t much better last year. He’s still useful, sure, but no one’s dying to grab a number 4 starting pitcher still making 15 million per year, regardless of what he has proven in the past
He had a 3.06 ERA this season before his most recent start, which was probably the worst outing of his entire career. His future starts will be closer to the 3.06 ERA he had than the 10 runs in 2 and 2/3 innings we saw his last time out.
More importantly, when you look at the contracts lesser starting pitchers like Jeff Samardzija and Ian Kennedy got last offseason and the lack of talent available on this offseason’s free agent starting pitcher market, Shields doesn’t look that bad anymore. He’s definitely overpaid, but everyone else who’s available either isn’t as good, is making almost as much money or will cost your entire farm. The White Sox just fleeced the Padres.
“, when you look at the contracts lesser starting pitchers like Jeff Samardzija and Ian Kennedy”
Based on what the trio is currently going – I’m not sure it’s fair to call Samardzija and Kennedy ‘lesser’ option. I’ve been a Shields fan for a long time – but he’s no longer what he was in KC or Tampa.
Even eating half they still save 30 mil. I know it’s not your money but….
That $30m isn’t nearly enough to sign another pitcher of Shields’ caliber in today’s market.
The last thing the Padres need to be doing is spending money on the free agent market for someone like Shields anyway.
This team needs to be trying to rebuild the disgusting mess AJ created..
Add to that, think about why James Shield’s isn’t expected to opt out of his contract.
Yes but the White Sox need a pitcher like Shields. They weren’t going to get one for $10m a year anywhere else without giving up actual prospects in return.
James Shields isn’t good and he is over paid. I think that shows with the return they got for him, even after eating half his salary. You are completely misguided with what you think he is worth.
He is good. He is definitely overpaid but not THAT overpaid.
Dude, they just had to pay half his fkin salary to move him for meh prospects. He’s a below average pitcher and it only looks to get worse going foward.
Fangraphs has a decent write up explaining about his issues.
He struggled last year because of a flukishly high HR/FB rate that everyone knew would come down.
This is coming from ownership. Have you been paying attention to interviews?
I told you this is what was going to happen in the last thread and you told me I was wrong. Ready to tell me I was right?? You said they wouldn’t eat any money if Erik Johnson were involved.
Haha. Fulmer and/or Anderson. Good try, but not even close.
Tatis jr would be a good get. He’s 5 years away but pretty toolsy. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s him, Erik Johnson and micker adolfo.
Close.
Nice to see San Diego wheelin’ & dealing in early June. Shields a solid pickup for the White Sox.
Don’t trade shields he is been really good I think if he took more practice he could probably stay but there’s no chance for that
Try using punctuation. It really helps.
Good riddance! 200 innings…durable…but also aloof, not a good teammate and apathetic. After he got bombed by Mariners, his care free remarks caused Fowler to go off. It looked like he was pitching BP to M’s to screw up trade rumors…really! Preller’s worst signing but he will get a pass from owners…unfortunately. These big, guaranteed contracts for SP are silly…especially for 34 year old pitchers. Big Shame Shields!!!
Not nearly as bad as trading for Kemp or Myers. 200 innings of sub-4 ERA ball isn’t cheap in today’s market.
Wow. The Royals would beg to differ with your characterization of Shields. Could it be the atmosphere of the Padres?
Yeah, dude was a solid team mate in Tampa. But it could also be difficult to buy into a team of misfit toys.
For Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis Jr
I’m honestly not sure Shields at this point is any better than Erik Johnson, one for one. If you haven’t seen Shields pitch this year, he’s a shadow of his former self. He’s basically pitching off his only remaining good pitch, a change-up, and trying to fool his way through 5 innings. He’s gonna get absolutely lit up in Chicago.
“Fool his way through 5…”
He’s pitched 6+ in every start but his last.
At this point, Erik isn’t fooling anyone. Long innings, short starts, not in 2016 plans and behind Carson for 2017.
His curveball has been his best pitch this year. Cutter isn’t terrible either, his fastball just sucks.
so $13-15 mil per year for 2 yrs of Shields??? am i figuring this correctly? not a bad lottery ticket to add some rotation depth.
Since they get 2.67 years, and including the 2 mil buyout he is due ~58 mil. Pads cover 30 mil it comes out to 10.48 mil per year for the white sox assuming the money is spread evenly.
Thank you theo.
The White Sox weren’t going to find a pitcher like Shields for that cheap anywhere else unless they were willing to part with Fulmer or Anderson.
Remains to be seen, he was below average last year, you can find those anywhere.
You linked to the wrong Fernando Tatis. That is his dad.
the dreaded “innings eater” label. not quite as bad as “hometown discount”
Wow, the Sox might finish the season at .500 now.
Go away. Quit being a troll.
While he may be trying to troll sox fans, they are projected to finish just about .500 (83-79)
I like the move for the sox, but the bigger problem with them is the man driving the bus. Ventura will take this team no where.
Yes he will. 4th place.
While its an upgrade for White Sox, it comes at a pretty expensive cost. Starting Pitching is not the Sox problem. We are like 2-3 solid hitting upgrades from being a good team. Lucroy would be nice. CarGo/Markakis would be nice. Please not Jay Bruce. We keep rolling our Alex Avila, Avi Garcia, Jerry Sands and JB Shuck. You cant win with those guys in your lineup.
In what world are Johnson and Tatis Jr. a “pretty expensive cost”? Unless you are referring to the actual cost ($$$), and even in that case, it’s still cheap for the White Sox…
Markakis is bad at baseball.
What expensive cost. They decided to spend money instead of prospects. Erik Johnson is bad and Fernando Tatis is 17 and just getting to the US.
If you think Erik Johnson is just as good as Shields, I feel bad for you.
Im talking the financials. Losing Johnson and Tatis is not an issue. Im saying you are still paying Shields big money. And neither Latos or Gonzo make much. So is the upgrade worth the 10 million in salary. I prefer that money go to a couple hitters. If this deal precludes us from two hitter upgrades, it wont be worth it.
What two hitters are you gonna get for $10m?
Shields will EASILY deliver on the $10m you are paying him per year.
He was worth 1.1 fwar last year, ~9m. He looks to do about the same this year and he’s just getting older. His value is about $10m a season, which is why you saw the sox give up a less than stellar return to pay him that.
You are being literal. My point is this: money should be spent on hitting, not pitching.
While I think Shields will be mediocre, $27 million for three years of veteran mediocrity is a good deal for the Sox and an improvement to the back end of their rotation.
Johnson may be okay in petco, but the Padres are still on the hook for $31 million (unless Shields opts out after going 12-3 with a sub 3.00 ERA. – doubtful).
Maybe CUBBIESFOREVER, but 1908 m? Seriously? 1908? Good Lord, I don’t care HOW many REGULAR SEOSON games they win this year . . . 1908???? OMG
The Cubs will win the World series within the next five years; maybe more than one.
Can you please send me the winning lottery numbers for the next drawing? Since you have a crystal ball and can see the future and what not…
Hey, the Red Sox and the White Sox won after 80+ year droughts. The Giants have won three this decade after never winning in SF.
The Cubs have never been set up better to win it all as they are now. Prepare yourself. It’s gonna happen!
Those words sound very familiar. Of yeah, I heard them from Cubs fans around the time Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were debuting. Don’t put the cart before the horse.
BTW, the Red Sox and White Sox breaking their long struggles only makes the Cubs continuing struggle that much worse. At least they used to have company.
Ray ray, judging from what you have said on other posts I don’t think your opinion holds up. They have the best team and a deep minor league system, deep enough to have keith law rank it 4th. The rebuilding teams with crap at the ml level and good systems think they will be playoff teams within 3 years. So yes I like the cubs chances.
I do not have the farm system rankings in front of me, however I believe the Cubs farm system was ranked in the low 20’s coming into this season. A big reason for that is do to a majority of top prospects in the big league squad so that’s not meant to discredit what they have built or traded for in prospects. Theo and hoyer have done a good job revamping the Cubs. When speaking of the Cubs rebuild it should be known that a lot of there guys were traded for or signed as FA not drafted or as some ignorant Cubs fans state homegrown. Montero, Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Heyward,Fowler, Ross, Lester,Lackey, Arrieta, hammel, And pretty much there entire bullpen.
Who,did you get your tip from Chelveston the duck?
Nice job white sox!! Sheilds will be great!
Bye bye Shields. I hope Preller continues trying to undo the mess from last year. Even though the Padres are still on the hook for a significant amount of money, this is a big step in the right direction
I legitimately feel bad for padres fans. Preller did so much dmg to that team in 1 offseason
But the baseball pundits couldn’t stop drooling over him last year. Shows how much they know about baseball. There’s more to the game than statistics and deals.
Which pundits are these? James shields was pretty widely viewed as an overpay?
Everyone was clamoring over what a genius Preller was last year because he picked up all of those big league pieces without giving his three best prospects. Of course since it didn’t work he is just an idiot that ruined the franchise. Gotta love short memories.
fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-transactions-of-the-…
Matt kemp trade was listed as worst deal
Yeah ruined the farm by trading
Grandal who wasnt lasting at catcher and only defensive metric he was good at was pitch framing, couldnt prevent steals to save his life.
Hahn fried burch smith wieland have injury histories and still tjs in their young careers.
Jace peterson was optioned cause he stunk so far this year. Ryan hanigan was old rene rivera was old and cut by the rays.
Wisler has had an xfip of 4.5 both years so far in atlanta.
And other guys are in the minors so we shall see.
Aside from ross turner preller gave up literally nothing in trade acquisitions so far after 2 years.
But i can definitely see how what he traded would of helped them be better than they are…..oh, no they wouldnt cause theyre injured or dealing with injuries.
How much money are the padres paying matt kemp to be terrible? And Grandal was worth 18 mil last year, kemp, 3.5.
And how can you say “aside for ross and turner?” Those are two very good young players.
Preach!!!!
And grandal is smacking .186 so far this year whats your point?
Ok who else did he trade that looked promising? I listed what he traded in another comment with how they’re currently doing. From the looks of it, trash preller sold high on in many instances thus far.
And what has what he trade for done? Except cost lots of money
It’s highly probable that Grandal produced more value last year than matt kemp will his entire time in a padres uniform.
Grandal has still been more valuable this year than has kemp.
Well, for one, he turned wisler maybin paroubeck and quentin into upton jr, margot, guerrera, allen, asjuae
Known fact what the padres gave up they out gained in trading kimbrel. And adds to the haul what they get for kimbrel?
They gained a 1st round pick for scraps in fried jace peterson and the other peterson. Jace was batting .182 and dustin is.hitting below .250 in AA or A. Fried has an era near 5 this year in the minors (tjs recovery). So if the 1st round pick out produces mallex smith its a win.
He netted maurer for a couple more cheap seasons. Netted pomeranz for alonso. Netted bethancourt for kelly.
I agree the Kimbrel trade did end up working out in the end. The Norris trade turned out okay too since the pieces he gave up have not done much. The Myers trade was obviously his worst.
What really makes the kemp trade bad is the financial aspects of it. He’s getting paid like a superstar when he is certainly not at that level anymore. He’s basically an aging DH at this point in his career. The Padres will be grateful if they can ever find someone to take his contract off of their hands, just like they did with the recent shields trade.
Right now, they should be looking to trade what they can to just start over. This means guys like Upton Jr., Cashner, even Pomeranz. We’ll have to see what Preller does once the deadline gets closer.
“Aside from ross turner preller gave up literally nothing in trade acquisitions so far after 2 years.”
Yes but for all that “literally nothing” let’s see what he got back.
For Grandal, Wieland and Eflin he got back Kemp who is MUCH MUCH less than nothing.
For Fried, Smith and Peterson x 2 he got a draft pick. The only way that trade looks good is if that draft pick outperforms all 4 of those guy combined.
For Hahn and Alvarez he got Derek Norris who is starting to approach the “literally nothing” category himself.
For Wisler he got back Kimbrel (who we didn’t need and didn’t know he would get us Margot, Guerra et al in the future) and Melvin Upton who was MUCH MUCH less than nothing and despite a career revival is still less than nothing.
But keep posting your delusional, nonsensical drivel on here. It’s quite entertaining to see you fail time and time again.
Wrong Fernando Tatis is linked
*sigh.
Do people seriously not know how to google and research anything now a days?
Here’s a list of what preller gave up.
Grandal (known ped user, smacking .186 this year) wieland (gone from la), eflin.
Jesse Hahn (4.72 xfip this year, injuries catching up), rj alvarez (injuries too)
Jace Peterson (.182 before being optioned this year) fried (tjs recovery), dustin peterson (.248 at AA i believe this year), mallex smith (.246 in 46 games).
Ryan Hanigan
Johnny Barbato (4.2 fip)
Seth Smith
Alex Torress (gone from nym)
Matt Wisler (xfip 4.5 both years), Jordan Paroubeck (.200 in a or aa ball this year), carlos quentin, cameron maybin (shelved cause of injury in det this year).
Only real ones that hurt are turner and ross.
But dont let facts and actually looking up who he traded and what have they done get in the way.
You are ignoring the contracts he took on
Kimbrel 12 mil on a bad team
Kemp 15 mil per(pads portion)
Shields (ate 30 mil plus last year’s 10+ for a crap team)
Bj upton ( 48 mil total)
Justin upton( 14 mil for a crap team)
Man that’s 200 mil they commited to those players on bad teams.
Padres are paying Kemp $18m per
For Grandal, Wieland and Eflin Preller got a player whose trade value is largely negative, even with the Dodgers paying a portion of his contract.
For Hahn and Alvarez he got Norris who is clearly regressing at the plate.
For Fried, Smith and Peterson x 2 he got a draft pick.
For Wisler, Paroubeck, Quentin, Maybin and that draft pick he got Melvin Upton who the Braves would have released if he hadn’t agreed to that trade.
But don’t let facts and actually looking up who he traded for and what have they done get in the way.
For wisler and others he got margot guerrera allen and asjuae as thats what kimbrel became. And whatever upton jr nets as hes restored some trade value with his defensive ratings and decent production at the plate.
So youd rather have injured maybin injured fried smith alvarez, jace peterson batting .182, grandal batting .186?
You keep coming back and getting smacked back down with facts ryan. 3 arguments youve failed at.
Maybin is not injured. He’s raking in detroit right now. He had a very productive year in Atlanta last season, putting up more WAR than any Padre outfielder except J. Upton. I’d much rather have him than Jay. I’d much rather have Seth Smith than Matt Kemp.
Grandal is a better catcher than Norris. Mallex Smith is probably more useful than Jay. Wisler, Joe Ross and Zach Eflin are much better starters than Perdomo, Vargas or Rea. I’m not even going to mention Dan Straily, who is pitching lights-out for Cincy and who AJ acquired for free then promptly released this spring. Fried was a top-100 prospect returning from TJ surgery. Plenty of very good pitchers have cme back from TJ.
And Preller certainly didn’t make the Kimbrel trade in anticipation of making a better trade the next season. Even if we can call that trade a win, it is badly offset by the tremendous loss he took in the Kemp trade and especially the Ross/Turner deal.
You cherry-picked the underperformer (Jace, etc.) s, but somehow don’t bother with the fact that everyone he’s acquired has been terrible this year with the exception of Melvin Upton. Kemp is a disaster, Norris can’t hit and shouldn’t be catching, Myers has been pretty good but I don’t think San Diego was hoping for am injury-prone bat-only first baseman when they traded for him. Shields wasn’t good last year and not much better this year. Middlebrooks couldn’t even win a spot in the Padres infield last year. Maurer has been awful. Preller also gave millions to Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow.
Oh, and Gyorko has already put up 1..2 wins this season in St. Louis. Jon Jay is putting up 0.9 WAR for SD this season. And the Padres are paying not only Jay but a chunk of Gyorko’s salary too. This isn’t a great track record for AJ so far.
1. Maybin has played 18 games so far this season. Why? CAUSE OF INJURY. He never lasts a full season. He’s already missed 35+ something games this season. He’s raking in 18 games played despite missing 35+ games. Hes worth a 1.0 WAR while jay has 1.3. Also maybin is raking with such an unsustainable BABIP of over .400 no way in hell he continues that over the course of the season.
2. Also according to fan graphs gyorkos posting a 0.8 war so far while jay has 1.3 Lol so your whole gyorko has a better WAR than Jay is pure bull. You might have switched the numbers there, which is hilarious.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10816&posi…
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5227&posit…
3. According to fan graphs this year, and espn, derek norris has been the better cat catcher.
espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/d…
Norris posts a superior dwar of 0.9 to grandals -0.2 dwar….thats a 1.1 difference in dwar. Even last year in 2015 norris had a dwar of 0.8 while grandal had 0.2. Does grandal offer better offensive capability? Sure. But he is not better defensively, not by a long shot. Also, 0.4 WAR for norris, 0.2 for grandal so far.
3. The only reason perdomo and vargas have started is because ross and erlin went down with injury. Had they stayed healthy theyd of never seen the field. Also, vargas had a xfip 4.22 before injury compared to wislers xfip 4.68……but glad youd rather have wisler LOL.
4. I didnt mention morrow or johnson cause he paid straight cash for them. Gave up nothing but cash and theyre not even taking up a roster spot cause of injury.
5. Dan Straily has been hitting an xfip of 4.56. He’s pitching better than his numbers indicate. This is strailys 1st real taste of the NL having spent his career in the AL witj Astros and Athletics. Pitchers typically get benefit switching leagues and in that ballpark doubt straily keeps up all season.
You really should double check things dude. This post was just a disaster for you. Such awful inaccurate statements that i had to correct for you.
He didn’t know he’d get Margot, Guerra et al when he traded for Kimbrel and Upton and he didn’t know Upton would revive his career in SD. The first Kimbrel trade was largely bad. Yes I would rather have Peterson and Fried than a lousy draft pick and i would rather have Grandal than be paying Matt Kemp $18m a year to be replacement level.
But yeah, I’m TOTALLY the one failing at an argument. You’re so right hahaha. You can keep trying to argue all you want, my puppet, but it won’t change that I’m SCHOOLING you with the cold, hard facts.
I use Baseball-Reference’s WAR calculation because I don’t care for the way Fangraphs’ WAR calculates defense.
As for the rest of the diatribe, I don’t think personal insults are befitting a discussion about baseball.
Maybin had his hand broken in spring by a HBP. A freak injury. He was healthy last season and outperformed Kemp, Myers, etc.
If you don’t know about pitch framing by this point I can’t help you with your arguments about Norris and Grandal.
And again, I don’t care for the way Fangraphs calculates defense; I prefer B-Rs methodology and math. Maybe that’s a minor quibble, but I prefer one measure and you prefer another. By B-R Gyorko is better than Jay.
Hey, if you think AJ Preller is a great GM just offer some evidence. No need to insult people. Just show me something he’s done that’s a positive for the Padres. Certainly the results on and off the field aren’t there, and the 25th-ranked minor league system isn’t much of an asset either. Trading Shields and eating 31 million dollars for two guys who weren’t even in the White Sox’ top-30 prospects isn’t evidence he’s getting better at his job.
Lets think here ryan, which is hard for you, but try.
Norris or injured hahn and alvarez? Hm, seems norris being healthy outweighs hahn and alvarez being injured giving you nothing. Thats like saying youd rather have josh johnson then derek norris on the team.
Would you rather have a 1st round pick or jace petersons .182? Dustin petersons sub .250 in the minors? Max frieds era near 5 in the minors? Hm….seems like a 1st round pick takes up 1 spot in the minors not 3 by subpar talent atm.
Would you rather have wislers xfip of 4.50+, paroubeck batting near .200 in the minors injured maybin, carlos quentin or would you rather have upton jr, margot, guerrera, allen, asjuae?
Would you rather have brandon maurer? Or seth smith? Alonso or pomeranz? Casey kelly or christian bethancourt?
Would you rather have kemps offensive production or grandals offensive production? Sure he’s making more but kemps got a wRC+ of 90 while grandal has wRC+ 81 so far this year? Both are striking out about 23%. Only thing grandal has is hes cheap. But kemps .476 slugging is over .100 points higher than grandals .348 slugging.
We can see why you arent a GM ryan., but thanks for reminding us.
Matt Kemp has drawn two walks this year. He has been worth -0.3 WAR this season. Yes, he has negative value. Grandal has been more valuable. Seth SMith has been more valuable. Cam Maybin missed the first month of the season and has been more valuable. Kemp is terrible; citing his slugging percentage doesn’t change that.
You seem savvy enough about baseball to know that comparing the offensive output of a right-fielder with a catcher doesn’t really work. Catching is a defense first position.
Yes which grandal posted 0.2 dwar last year and -0.2 dwar this year. Norris has 0.9 dwar and 0.8 last year. Ill give you a hint dwar means defensive wins above replacement. Also 0.8> 0.2 and 0.9 >>>-0.2
Norris for Hahn and Alvarez would be an easy win for the Padres if Norris wasn’t CLEARLY regressing as a hitter.
You forgot the fact that Max Fried is 22 years old and dealing with the usual inconsistencies that come with returning from Tommy John surgery. You also forgot (or just left out) Mallex Smith, who is playing well at the Major League level right now. Yes I would rather have those two guys than a draft pick.
Preller didn’t trade Wisler and Paroubeck for Margot and Guerra. He traded them for Kimbrel (who we didn’t need) and Melvin Upton (who was a sunk cost for the Braves).
Seth Smith is easily better than Brandon Maurer.
I never said I’d rather I’ve Alonso than Pomeranz.
I also never said I’d rather have Kelly than Bethancourt.
For the same amount of money, I’d rather have Kemp’s offensive production than Grandal’s, but that increase in offensive production isn’t NEARLY enough to offset how much more money Kemp is making than Grandal. Especially when you consider that Matt Kemp is THE worst defensive right fielder in baseball.
But keep pretending that I’m the stupid one and you’re not, lmfao 🙂
I didnt forget about mallex smith. But considering mallex smith and travis jankowski are essntially the same player just like corey spangenberg and jace peterson were the same player its a moot point.
Jankowski has a .250/.354/.364 line with a 3.1 defensive rating.
Mallex Smith .244/.301/.427 with a 1.7 defensive rating. Except jankwoski has a better eye at the plate given higher walk rate and lower strike out rate.
Given both petersons struggles, having jankowski, and frieds long journey back from 2014 tjs the 1st round pick seems more valuable esp for taking chances on higher end talent that falls due to signability concerns/college committments. Also, the extra 1st grants a larger draft pool to use in other rounds for players. But it appears you didnt realize the possibilites of all this ryan.
Also, what kimbrel became in terms of what they got from boston adds to his favor. If you’re gonna fault him for the amount of money hes paying kemp and trading ross turner you cant ignore what hes got the team in pomeranz, margot/guerrera/allen/asjuae, bethancourt, the 1st round pick for upton, jon jay for gyorko, and actually hit on upton jr whos produced in both years with the padres.
Sure kemps making a ton but at least he offers offensive upside this year. Grandal offers very little offense and practically no defense behind the plate. At least norris offers defense despite his bat regressing. I guess paying grandal lesser money to bat .186 and have a neg dwar makes sense financially.
Hey if thinking you aren’t ignorant and facts prove you wrong help you sleep at night ryan or make you feel better about yourself have fun living in your dream world. I wouldn’t comment any further though cause every comment youve posted ive countered and proven you wrong every time. In fact you eventually gave up cause you couldnt counter facts i presented your way on other posts. Its sad really that you try so hard but fail so badly in the end man.
You haven’t proven jack. Do yourself a favor and quit while you are far behind. Like a moth drawn to a flame you keep coming back for more pain. There’s really no point in you commenting ever again because I’ve already plainly exposed for everyone to see that you are an inept dodobird with no knowledge whatsoever of baseball or player values.
We could have had both Smith AND Jankowski and we could have had both Peterson AND Spangenberg and then Peterson and Smith could have been used as trade bait to get us a player who wasn’t just going to leave after one year. While that draft pick probably has more value to us than any one player we gave up in the JUp trade, it certainly isn’t more valuable than all four of them combined. But you’re too dumb to realize this.
Once again Preller didn’t know he would be able to trade Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra et al when he traded for him so that is irrelevant.
I did not ignore all the players he go but, they don’t make up for the players he gave up plus bad contracts he took on and paying half of Shields’ contract to play against us.
Kemp’s offensive upside compared to Grandal’s is nowhere NEAR being worth the $18.25m a year that we are paying him. He has negative trade value, Grandal does not. Grandal may not have much trade value but the Dodgers could trade him withing eating salary if they wanted to because he isn’t making any money. The Padres won’t be able to trade Kemp without eating close to ALL of his contract. How do you not see that Kemp’s contract is a problem? Are you really that delusional?
Derek Norris is basically in the same boat as Grandal, not hitting, not making much money, has played better in the past.
You can keep arguing with me until 2017 but it won’t change that I’m SCHOOLING you with the cold, hard facts.
reality check: KEMP IS NOT THE PADRES PROBLEM! Last year, he hit 22 with 100 rbi’s for a team that was terrible on offense. This year, they’re horrible again, but Kemp is on target for 30+ HR and another 100+ RBI season for a club that has an OBP of less than .300. That means, there’s not a lot of chances. So while his BA isn’t impressive, he’s hitting .333 with Runner In Scoring positions.
Yes, his trade value isn’t great because of his salary, that’s about money—-not his value as a player. I suspect LA would rather have Kemp than Gradel right now in the lineup.
Yes he is the Padres problem. He’s a guy without a position making $18.25m to make an out in 3/4 of his plate appearances.
If the Dodgers want him, let them have him 🙂
and hit HR’s and drive in runs….and Kemp has been good at doing both the last couple years. Now….if the Padres were interested, maybe they could send Kemp to Texas for Prince Fielder! 🙂
So if he’s so good how come no other team wants him?
Kemp is awful. He has drawn two walks this season and he runs like an old woman pushing a wheelbarrow. No defense. The HRs and RBIs are nice but they certainly aren’t helping the Padres win any games.
sigh…grandal has still been more valuable than kemp. And that’s not including any value that catchers would get from framing.
Lets just pretend for a second that Preller didn’t trade for or acquire any players last off-season. This would be the Padres starting lineup:
C: Grandal, 1B: Alonso, 2B: Spangenberg , SS: Trea Turner, 3B: Gyorko. LF: Seth Smith, CF: Maybin, RF Jankowski with Alex Dickerson as the fourth OF.
SP would be Joe Ross, Tyson Ross, Cashner, Eflin (look at his numbers in AAA as a 22-year old), Wisler, Hahn. Shawn Kelley would be the closer.
Is that a great team? No. Is it better than this team that’s probably going to lose 100 games? Undoubtedly. The team I described above would be a borderline wild-card contender if everything broke right, with minor league pieces available to acquire help.
Rizzo for Cashner is working out well for the Cubs. Pre-Preller, but another lopsided SD deal
The funny thing is they clearly had money to spend as they wound up taking on additional payroll. And preller strong suit was supposed to be international scouting yet they let the pirates get him for a 4 mil posting and like an 8 mil contract.
Not only this, but as BigH doesn’t seem to understand, they would have had that lineup plus $160 million for FA signings, international signings, and extensions. So that lineup you mention would really only be the beginning of what their team would look like.
$160 million for FA, international signings, and extensions huh?
1. Who should they have signed in FA? Greinke for 200 mill? Justin Upton for 170? Samarja, leake, cueto? I do enjoy when people are like, they should of signed x y z players! As if players dont get to decide where they end up, actually they do. Nobody would sign with the lineup david proposed.
2. They are already expected to bust open the bank for international signings this year.
3. Extensions for who? 2017 jon jay, ramierez, rodney, thornton, villanueva, rosales are free agents and most the roster is 2019 2020 2021 under control. But i guess extensions for melvin upton and amarista are possible by the time theyre up in 2018…..seriously did you look up the players under team control?
The fact you put gyorko at 3rd instead of solarte, think maybin would of lasted at center despite missing nearly all of 2013 and about 60 something games in 2014 and has already missed 35 games this year, think alonso should still be a padre despite his .222 avg and .284 obp and -0.6WAR so far, think an injured hahn, an over rated wisler, and eflin whos projections indicate hed be the same as wisler with a 4.48 fip, grandal with his .186 avg and -0.2 dwar would be better than what they currently have is laughable.
Gyorko is probably better than Solarte but replace one with the other; they’re similar players. You continually and conveniently leave out the fact that Maybin was healthy and very productive in 2015. He missed the first moth of this season after having his hand broken by a HBP – a freak injury. Alonso is terrible, yes, but the Padres don’t seem to have the ability to develop a first baseman so he’d be the guy to play. Eflin’s triple-A numbers, as a 22 year old, are amazing (look them up). If you think Jon Jay and Matt Kemp are long-term answers for this team I’d just disagree. Jay is an average player at best and Kemp is a disaster unless you think RBIs are a thing. Which I don’t, and since you cite Fangraphs so often I would guess you don’t either.
Lol that 4 ERA and all those bombs on a non hitters park will be a 5 ERA and more bombs with Chicago.
Did anyone find any stats on Fernando Tatis Jr. or did the White Sox really manage to trade someone who has been out of baseball for multiple years? (Insert sarcasm here)
Padres suck so bad that was there best pitcher Padres are just crap
Will Anderson be better than Tatis? Who the heck knows. Let’s talk about this one again in five years. Until then, the WS are getting a quality pitcher who had one awful start to make his stats look terrible. That’s how baseball go. Derek Holland had another fine outing to beat Seattle….7 innings, 2runs. His ERA is back under 4 after one awful and one bad start that saw it go over 6. It’s a long season. Chicago is getting a guy who can help their rotation.
Will Anderson be better than Tatis? Who the heck knows? Let’s talk about this one again in five years. Until then, the southsiders are getting a quality pitcher who is coming off one awful start to make his stats look worse than they actually are. One bad appearance will do it and it takes a bit to return to normal. That’s how baseball go. Derek Holland had another fine outing to beat Seattle today….7 innings, 2runs. His ERA is back under 4 after one awful and one bad start that saw it go over 6. It’s a long season. Chicago is getting a guy who can help their rotation. In the meantime, that ends the second most popular thread in this forum for a while. Shields is traded and Panda is gone for the season!
5 years later… This looks like a sweet deal for the Padres!
this didn’t age well
Shields for Tatis Jr…woof
Pads got robbed!
Some of the comments on here are funny.
Hi. I’m here from the future to tell you that the White Sox did not, in fact, “fleece” the Padres, as suggested by some of their fanbase