Midterm Election Poll: Utah’s 4th District, Love vs. McAdams
We polled voters in Utah’s 4th Congressional District.
This poll was conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26.
Can a Democrat win in Utah? We made 16290 calls, and 526 people spoke to us.
Our poll shows a close race.
But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 526 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College. Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 16290 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answerTo preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
Ben McAdams is the mayor of Salt Lake County, a lawyer, and a former state representative. 54% favorable rating; 29% unfavorable; 18% don’t know
Based on 526 interviews
Mia Love is the incumbent, first elected in 2014. 47% favorable rating; 44% unfavorable; 9% don’t know
Based on 526 interviews
The district is a boot-shaped expanse extending south from Salt Lake City, as a recent New York Tiimes article put it. Only 15 percent of the voters are registered Democrats, but the party won the seat narrowly in 2012.
Ms. Love, born in Brooklyn, is the first black female Republican elected to Congress. Her parents are immmigrants from Haiti, and Ms. Love has critized President Trump’s immigration policies, which tend to be unpopular among Mormons. Mr. Trump won Utah in 2016, but with just 45 percent of the vote.
The Federal Election Commission is questioning Ms. Love’s campaign about raising $1 million for the June 26 primary election even though she was unopposed.
In the first negative TV commercial of the campaign, she labeled Mr. McAdams a “tax and spend Democrat.
Mr. McAdams is the twice-elected mayor of Salt Lake County, home to roughly 85 percent of the district. He needs to attract some Republicans to win, and he’s focused on centrist bipartisan issues like passing an infrastructure bill and expanding access to health care.
Previous election results:
| 2016 President | +7 Trump |
| 2012 President | +37 Romney |
| 2016 House | +13 Rep. |
It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
| Polls | Dates | McAdams | Love | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dixie Strategies n = 936 lv | Oct. 25 | 50% | 43% | McAdams +6 |
| Mellman Group (D.) 400 lv | Oct. 7-10 | 47% | 46% | McAdams +1 |
| University of Utah 403 rv | Oct. 3-11 | 46% | 46% | Even |
| Y2 Analytics (R.) 405 lv | Sept. 6-8 | 42% | 51% | Love +9 |
| Dan Jones & Associates 400 lv | Aug. 22-Sept. 6 | 46% | 49% | Love +3 |
| Mellman Group (D.) 400 lv | Aug. 20-23 | 44% | 46% | Love +2 |
| Lighthouse Research 600 rv | Aug. 11-27 | 38% | 48% | Love +9 |
| University of Utah 379 rv | June 11-18 | 39% | 45% | Love +6 |
| Dan Jones & Associates 405 lv | May 15-June 5 | 43% | 47% | Love +4 |
| Mellman Group (D.) 400 lv | Feb. 27-Mar. 4 | 40% | 43% | Love +3 |
| Dan Jones & Associates 404 rv | Feb. 9-21 | 43% | 49% | Love +6 |
| Dan Jones & Associates 400 rv | Jan. 15-22 | 42% | 47% | Love +5 |
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How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
But sampling error is not the only type of error in a poll.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Assumptions about who is going to vote may be particularly important in this race.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
| Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | 165k | Love +8 |
| People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | 207k | Even |
| Our estimate | 208k | Even |
| People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | 227k | McAdams +4 |
| People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | 227k | Even |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | 259k | Even |
| Every active registered voter | 348k | Even |
All estimates based on 526 interviews
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
| Called | Inter- viewed | Success rate | Our responses | Goal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 1281 | 40 | 1 in 32 | 8% | 10% |
| 30 to 64 | 9569 | 335 | 1 in 29 | 64% | 63% |
| 65 and older | 3279 | 141 | 1 in 23 | 27% | 27% |
| Male | 6160 | 278 | 1 in 22 | 53% | 47% |
| Female | 8282 | 248 | 1 in 33 | 47% | 53% |
| White | 12015 | 435 | 1 in 28 | 83% | 84% |
| Nonwhite | 1450 | 51 | 1 in 28 | 10% | 10% |
| Cell | 11107 | 437 | 1 in 25 | 83% | — |
| Landline | 3335 | 89 | 1 in 37 | 17% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | McAdams +1 |
| Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls | McAdams +1 |
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | McAdams +1 |
| Our estimate | Even |
All estimates based on 526 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 9 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans.
Issues and other questions
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 526 | 44% | 50% | 6% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Reps. keep House | Dems. take House | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 526 | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female n = 248 / 53% of voters | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Male 278 / 47% | 41% | 50% | 8% |
Age
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 n = 45 / 10% of voters | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| 30 to 44 160 / 26% | 53% | 36% | 11% |
| 45 to 64 181 / 37% | 39% | 53% | 8% |
| 65 and older 140 / 27% | 45% | 46% | 8% |
Race and education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonwhite n = 57 / 11% of voters | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| White, college grad 229 / 36% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| White, not college grad 229 / 51% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or Less n = 55 / 21% of voters | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Some College Educ. 209 / 37% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| 4-year College Grad. 152 / 26% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Post-grad. 105 / 15% | 53% | 38% | 9% |
Party
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat n = 90 / 18% of voters | 98% | — | 2% |
| Republican 181 / 36% | 11% | 83% | 6% |
| Independent 223 / 40% | 55% | 32% | 13% |
| Another party 21 / 4% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
Party registration
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic n = 84 / 15% of voters | 95% | 2% | 3% |
| Republican 252 / 49% | 17% | 75% | 7% |
| Other 190 / 36% | 63% | 23% | 15% |
Intention of voting
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Already voted n = 257 / 52% of voters | 51% | 44% | 6% |
| Almost certain 175 / 32% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Very likely 69 / 12% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Somewhat likely 10 / 1% | 34% | 42% | 24% |
| Not very likely 12 / 1% | 19% | 47% | 34% |
| Not at all likely 2 / 0% | 64% | 36% | — |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.2. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.