April 28th, 2014
According to Amazon, the top best selling new release of the week is Space Battleship Yamato on Blu-ray Combo Pack. Huh? This is a live action remake of a 1970s Anime series, and according to Amazon.com, it is the number one selling new release of the week. Either this is an incredibly slow week, or there's something wrong with Amazon.com's algorithm. It's mostly the former. Gloria is easily the best movie on this list, but the reviews on the DVD are weak. Star Trek: Enterprise: Season Four has a lot of extras and the season was arguably the best in the show's short run, but the Blu-ray is expensive and even the best season isn't as good as the average TNG season. I finally got to the review for Knights of Badassdom and I loved the Blu-ray, but I'm not sure there is a wide enough audience for the movie. I was tempted to go with Space Battleship Yamato as Pick of the Week. In the end, I went with Gloria.
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April 17th, 2014
Rio 2 raced to first place with $63.5 million on 20,008 screens in 65 markets for a total of $125.6 million after four weeks of release. This includes a first place debut in Mexico, where it earned $8.42 million on 2,627 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.97 million. This is about $3 million more than the first film's debut there. It also earned first place in Australia with $2.09 million on 278 screens, although this is weaker than its predecessor. It is still too soon to tell where it will finish internationally, as it has been doing better in some markets, but worse in others, when compared to Rio. That said, I think the studio should be happy overall.
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February 20th, 2014
There are two wide releases debuting this week, Pompeii and 3 Days to Kill. Neither film were expected to be big hits and I originally predicted $35 million for both films. Now it seems low expectations have dropped even further. Neither film has a shot at first place, which should come as no surprise, but now it looks like the two films will be battling for fifth place. The LEGO Movie will remain supreme over the weekend and will not only crush the competition this week, but will crush the competition from last year as well. Last year the two new releases were Snitch and Dark Skies, but the box office was led by Identity Thief. There's a slim chance The LEGO Movie will earn more than those three films earned combined (roughly $35 million). Even on the low end, it will earn more than the top two films earned last year. 2014 will continue to dominate 2013 in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 21st, 2014
It was a record-breaking weekend with Ride Along earning the biggest January opening weekend and the biggest MLK long weekend. Needless to say, it crushed expectations. Additionally, The Nut Job overcame terrible reviews to earn a solid opening, at least according to estimates. Overall, the box office pulled in $176 million over the three-day weekend, which is 26% more than the three-day weekend last week and last year. Over the four-day weekend, the box office pulled in $211 million, or 28% more than last year's MLK long weekend. That's great news, as 2014 was below 2013's pace. In fact, after this weekend, 2014 has pulled ahead of 2013 by 8% at $671 million to $621 million.
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January 14th, 2014
As expected, Lone Survivor won the race to first place on the box office this past weekend. However, it crushed predictions to an astounding degree. It wasn't enough. The overall box office was down to $140 million. Granted, that was less than 1% lower than last weekend and just over 1% lower than the same weekend last year, but it is still frustrating. Besides the number one film, there's not a lot of positive news to report. Year-to-date, 2014 is a little behind 2013 at $413 million to $436 million. Granted, it is far too soon to talk about end of year results, but you obviously would want a fast start rather than a slow start.
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January 10th, 2014
There is only one truly new wide release this weekend: The Legend of Hercules. This film is earning zero positive reviews and most analysts think it will miss the top five. Fortunately, there are a couple of limited releases expanding wide this weekend that should help compensate. Lone Survivor is the most obviously mainstream hit and it has been doing surprisingly well in limited release. Meanwhile, Her is probably too out there to be a mainstream hit, but its reviews suggest it should at least do well with those looking for Oscar-quality films. This weekend last year was the weekend Zero Dark Thirty expanded wide. It pulled in $24.44 million over the weekend, which is a figure Lone Survivor might match. Unfortunately for 2014, 2013 had much better depth at the box office, so even if the Lone Survivor does get to $25 million or beyond, it still looks like the year will continue lower than last year.
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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December 27th, 2013
It's the first Box Office Prediction contest of the year and it is an easy week to pick a target film, as the only wide release is Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. Paranormal Activity is an established franchise, but this is the first film in the series not to open wide in October, so it will be interesting to see how moviegoers reach. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a signed poster for The Legend of Hercules, signed by Kellan Lutz.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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