Weekend Predictions: Battle of Lasts, Key vs. Jedi, on First Weekend of 2018
January 4, 2018
It is the first weekend of 2018 and Insidious: The Last Key is the only true wide release, although Molly’s Game is expanding semi-wide. The Last Key isn’t expected to compete with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle or Star Wars: The Last Jedi for first place, but if it can open with more than $15 million, it should at least help the year get off to a good start. This weekend last year, Underworld: Blood Wars opened in fourth place, while Hidden Figures expanded into first place. Both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Star Wars: The Last Jedi should top Hidden Figures and while 2018 won’t have the same depth, it should still earn a victory in the year-over-year comparison.
Welcome to the Jungle has topped The Last Jedi on the daily chart and it is on pace to do the same over the weekend. The film has already earned enough to pay for its reported $90 million production budget and by the end of its run, it could pay for its advertising budget as well. I would be shocked if there wasn’t a sequel already in the works. Look for just over $30 million this weekend, which should be more than enough to secure first place.
Star Wars will earn second place with just over $26 million over the weekend for a total of $575 million after four weeks of release. It will have no trouble getting to $600 million domestically, likely before the end of MLK weekend.
Insidious: The Last Key is the fourth film in the Insidious franchise. The most recent installment was the worst at the domestic box office. Most assume this one will continue the decline. The early reviews are not helping, as it has a Tomatometer Score of just 29% positive. Granted, the average score given by the critics is 4.9 out of 10, so most critics don’t hate the movie, but they certainly aren’t recommending it either. Tracking for The Last Key has it earning an opening weekend of between $15 million to $18 million. I think the low end is a little more likely and I’m going with a prediction of $16 million.
The Greatest Showman should earn just over $10 million over the weekend to give it a running tally of over $70 million after three weeks of release. This is great for a musical, but not so good for a movie that cost $84 million to make. I think it will break even, eventually, but I don’t think it will usher in a new wave of musicals.
Pitch Perfect 3 should round out the top five with between $8 million and $9 million over the weekend. The closer it comes to $9 million the better its chances of hitting $100 million domestically. The film is probably close to breaking even already, but hitting that milestone will be a reason to celebrate.
Molly’s Game is expanding semi-wide this weekend. It won’t expand enough to hit the top five, but it should come reasonably close with about $6 million. The reviews are not award-worthy, but they are certainly better than most of the competition; however, trying to expand wide is always a risk.
- Insidious: The Last Key Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi, Pitch Perfect 3, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Molly’s Game, Insidious: The Last Key, Insidious