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Felix Bautista To Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Signs Through 2025 Season

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Orioles GM Mike Elias announced this afternoon that right-handed closer Felix Bautista is set to undergo Tommy John surgery in early October. Elias also announced that the club and Bautista had agreed upon a guaranteed, two-year contract that runs through the 2025 campaign. Bautista won’t pitch during the 2024 campaign, and is expected back in time for Spring Training 2025.

Bautista, 28, made his big league debut in 2022 as a member of the Baltimore bullpen and almost immediately became one of the club’s most important arms, with a 2.19 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 65 2/3 innings for the club last year as the Orioles surged to a surprising 83-79 season. The right-hander took another leap forward in his sophomore season to become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball during the 2023 campaign. In 61 innings of work this season, Bautista posted an unbelievable 46.4% strikeout rate that lead all relievers while also leading the pack in FIP (1.88), xFIP (2.30), and SIERA (2.06). Bautista’s sterling 1.48 ERA trailed only four relievers in the majors, and the right-hander figured to be a key part of the Orioles’ first postseason push since 2016.

Unfortunately, those plans went awry in late August when the club announced that Bautista was headed to the injured list with “some degree” of UCL injury. Even at the time, that diagnosis was ominous, given that UCL damage often requires Tommy John surgery. That said, the Orioles left the door open for the 2023 All Star to return to help the club’s playoff push, and the righty began to rehab in hopes of working his way back from the injury. Elias noted at the time that while doctors had indicated Bautista would be able to pitch without causing any further damage to his UCL, a procedure to address the issue would be necessary at some point.

The plan seemed to be going well, at first, as Bautista worked up to 25-pitch side sessions fairly quickly. Ultimately, as relayed by Jake Rill for MLB.com, the right-hander ran out of time to return during the regular season, with just two games left to play on Baltimore’s schedule. That left the Orioles to decide to shut him down for the year, preferring not to activate him during the postseason push without having made lower-leverage appearances first. With Bautista not participating in the postseason, there was little reason to delay the right-hander’s surgery further.

With Bautista not expected to throw a competitive pitch until Spring Training of the 2025, the sides came together on a guaranteed deal that would run through the end of the 2025 season, Bautista’s first year of arbitration eligibility. While the terms of Bautista’s deal with the Orioles have not been disclosed, Elias expressed in comments to reporters (including MASN’s Roch Kubatko) that the deal was a bright spot that should help Bautista focus on the rehab ahead of him.

“I think that’s great, because he can just concentrate on his rehab and getting back on the field. He won’t have any business to attend to in that time,” Elias said. “We did something similar with John Means, and very happy for Félix and for us that that’s out of the way.”

With Bautista officially done for 2023 (and 2024), the Orioles figure to turn to right-handed setup man and fellow All Star Yennier Cano as their primary closer in his absence. Cano has recorded four saves in Bautista’s absence, though he’s struggled to an uncharacteristic 4.76 ERA in 11 1/3 innings of work during that time. Cano’s full-season numbers are much more impressive, as the 29-year-old righty sports a 2.12 ERA and 2.87 FIP in 72 1/3 innings of work with the Orioles this season.

NL Central Notes: Keller, Cubs, Lauer

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The Pirates and right-hander Mitch Keller have previously discussed a contract extension as recently as this spring,  and while no deal got done back then, it appears those talks could continue with the offseason on the horizon. As relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Keller recently spoke openly about his desire to hammer out a long-term deal with the Pirates. “Hopefully this offseason we can get something going with extension talks,” Keller said. “I would love to be part of it and be here for however many years. I think we have a really good window here to really do something special.”

It’s easy to see why the Pirates would have interest in locking up Keller, as the 27-year-old righty has proven to be a steadying presence in the club’s starting rotation over the past two seasons, with a 4.08 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 353 1/3 innings of work with a 23% strikeout rate. A first-time All Star in 2023, Keller posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.32 FIP while striking out 26.7% of batters faced in the first half. While the wheels came off for Keller when he allowed a 5.59 ERA over his final 13 starts of the season, the talent he flashed in the first half is that of a mid-rotation arm or better. That’s a particularly valuable commodity for a Pirates team that sports a core dominated by hitters like Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Endy Rodriguez.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Pittsburgh’s loss to the Marlins this evening officially eliminated the Cubs from postseason contention, and plenty of criticism from fans and media has been levied toward club manager David Ross as the club’s playoff odds steadily sunk from a high-water mark of 92% in early September. Despite that outside criticism, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently stood by his manager, telling reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that “People are going to ask you about your bad decisions 100 times more than they’re going to ask about your good decisions. That is the job… I’m looking at ‘What can you do better and keep learning?’” With Hoyer defending his manager, it seems likely that Ross will return for the 2024 campaign, which is the final guaranteed season of his contract. The Cubs hold a club option on his services for the 2025 season.
  • Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer returned to the club today more than three months after being optioned to the minors back in June. As noted by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lauer was shut down for much of the summer due to issues in both of his shoulders and his left elbow. Lauer returned to the big leagues for a start against the Cubs this evening, but the lefty allowed eight runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings of work, ballooning his season ERA to 6.56 across ten appearances (nine starts). Between Lauer’s struggles and increasing price in arbitration, Hogg notes that it “seems unlikely” Lauer will return to Milwaukee in 2024. If today marks the end of Lauer’s time with the Brewers, he’ll depart with a career 4.05 ERA (102 ERA+) in 331 innings since being acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in exchange for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies.

Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta Open To Extensions With Red Sox

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The Red Sox are facing an uncertain offseason, with the first order of business surely being replacing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who the club fired earlier this month. Once a new head of baseball operations is in place, however, it seems extension negotiations could be on their offseason list of tasks.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe indicates that it is “likely” that the organization will open talks with young hurler Brayan Bello regarding a potential long-term deal this offseason. Speier also relays right-hander Nick Pivetta’s thoughts on a possible long-term deal with Boston, with the 30-year-old speaking positively of the organization and saying, “You don’t leave any doors closed. Leave them all open and see where it goes.”

That Pivetta, who posted a brutal 6.30 ERA across the first six weeks of the season before being demoted to the bullpen, has finished his 2023 campaign as a potential extension candidate speaks volumes regarding his performance in recent months. Since his initial demotion to the bullpen, Pivetta has posted strong numbers over the course of 102 2/3 innings in a swing role that’s seen him make eight starts and 22 relief appearances. In that time, Pivetta posted a 3.16 ERA and 3.27 FIP with a massive 34.9% strikeout rate against a solid 7.7% walk rate. That’s good for a 27.2 K-BB% that’s outclassed only by Braves fireballer Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work since May 21, the date of Pivetta’s first relief appearance.

Pivetta’s also managed to keep the excellent results up during the season’s final month, which saw him return to the club’s rotation on a regular basis. During the month of September, Pivetta has posted a 2.43 ERA with a 2.86 FIP and a 34.1% strikeout rate and a microscopic 4.0% walk rate. Pivetta’s fantastic finish to the 2023 campaign leaves him with overall numbers that give him the look of a solid mid-rotation starter. Among the 73 pitchers who have posted at least 140 innings of work this season, Pivetta’s 3.96 FIP ranks 32nd, his 4.04 ERA ranks 38th, and his 31.2% strikeout rate is bested only by Strider and Blake Snell.

Of course, with Pivetta already slated to hit free agency following the 2024 season, a potential extension would likely come at some sort of discount relative to full market value, though perhaps not a particularly steep one given the limited team control remaining. Last offseason’s free agent market saw mid-rotation arms like Jameson Taillon (4 years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (4 years, $72MM) both receive in the range of $70MM while sporting similar numbers to those Pivetta has posted the last two seasons, though both Taillon and Walker were younger than Pivetta will, who is set to hit free agency prior to his age-32 campaign.

As for Bello, the young right-hander posted solid numbers in his sophomore campaign, with a 4.24 ERA and 4.53 FIP across 157 innings of work. Those numbers are inflated by a brutal September that’s seen Bello allow 22 runs over 26 innings of work, resulting in a 7.62 ERA. Even so, Bello’s looked more like a fourth or fifth starter to this point in his career than anything else, with roughly league average results and peripherals. His most eye-catching stat is an impressive 56.2% ground ball rate, a figure topped by only Alex Cobb and Logan Webb among pitchers with at least 150 innings this year.

Between the mixed results to this point in his big league career, his youth, and his pre-arbitration status, recent comparisons are few and far between when considering what a Bello extension might look like. Freddy Peralta’s five-year, $15.5MM extension is perhaps the nearest comparison, though Bello’s been better than Peralta was in the first two seasons of his career. Peralta had yet to reach 100 innings pitched in a season and had a career ERA+ nearly 15% lower than Bello’s at the time of his extension.

Yankees Activate Frankie Montas

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The Yankees announced this afternoon that they had activated right-hander Frankie Montas from the 60-day injured list. In corresponding moves, the club placed outfielder Jasson Dominguez on the 60-day IL and optioned right-hander Randy Vasquez to Triple-A.

Montas is expected to make his 2023 season debut as a multi-inning piggyback starter in one of the club’s final two games against the Royals. It will be just Montas’s ninth appearance with the Yankees since they acquired him from the A’s ahead of last year’s trade deadline. In eight starts with the club last year, Montas struggled to a 6.35 ERA with a 4.93 FIP. He struck out just 17.8% of batters faced with the Yankees and walked 8.1% before being placed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation last September. The issue eventually required surgery back in February, and Montas has missed the entire 2023 campaign to this point while rehabbing.

Despite Montas’s tumultuous Yankees tenure, the 30-year-old right-hander appears to hope to return to the club in 2024. Montas told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that he hopes to re-sign in New York this coming offseason, though he added that the sides have not yet discussed a potential new contract at this point.

Although his history in the Bronx to this point has been rough, a reunion could make sense for both sides. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Nestor Cortes appear to be the only three players locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 campaign, and the addition of a veteran arm like Montas could ease the pressure on youngsters like Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, and Vasquez. Montas would surely be a fairly short-term, low-cost signing given his recent history, meaning the Yankees’ ability to take a bigger swing at a top-of-the-market arm like Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto would be unaffected, should they be interested in such a deal.

For Montas, it would give the righty a familiar place to re-establish himself as the mid-rotation starter he has been throughout his career. From 2018-2021, Montas posted a 3.57 ERA with a nearly matching 3.55 FIP in 401 innings of work. That body of work was 17% better than league average by measure of ERA+, and is right in line with the performance Montas delivered in 2022 prior to departing Oakland. In 19 starts (104 2/3 innings) with the A’s last year, Montas posted a 3.18 ERA (116 ERA+) and 3.35 FIP with a strikeout rate of 25.8% against a walk rate of just 6.6%. If Montas is able to recapture the form he had in the first half last year, he’d surely be an asset to the rotation of the Yankees or any other club looking to add a mid-rotation arm this offseason.

Phillies Select Michael Plassmeyer

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The Phillies announced this evening that the club had selected the contract of left-hander Michael Plassmeyer. In corresponding moves, the club recalled right-hander Erich Uelmen before placing him on the 60-day IL with a right flexor strain and optioned right-hander Luis Ortiz.

Plassmeyer, 25, made his MLB debut with the Phillies last year. The southpaw posted a 3.68 ERA and 3.38 FIP over two long relief appearances, racking up seven strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings of work. He’s been pitching at the minor league level for Philadelphia since then, and sports a 4.64 ERA in 75 2/3 innings of work across 19 appearances (17 starts) at the High-A and Triple-A levels. Plassmeyer figures to give the Phillies volume out of the bullpen for the second game of today’s doubleheader, should it be necessary.

To make room for Plassmeyer on the 40-man roster, the club recalled Uelmen to Triple-A before immediately placing him on the 60-day IL. Uelmen appeared in just one inning for the Phillies previously this season, allowing four runs on three hits and two walks while striking out just one. The righty posted a 4.08 ERA in 17 2/3 innings of work across three levels of the minor leagues this season, and made just three appearances June 4 due to injuries.

Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Ortiz makes room for Plassmeyer on the active roster. Ortiz was called up just earlier today for the first half of the doubleheader, during which he struck out two over a scoreless inning of work. Entering today, Ortiz owned a 3.50 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 18 innings of work with the Phillies since being claimed off waivers from the Giants this past offseason.

Rangers Select Matt Bush

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The Rangers announced this afternoon that the club has selected the contract of right-hander Matt Bush. In corresponding moves, the club optioned left-hander Jake Latz to Triple-A and designated right-hander Alex Speas for assignment.

Bush, 37, was selected first overall by the Padres in the 2004 draft but didn’t make it to the majors until 2016 thanks to off-the-field issues. Bush’s rookie season with the Rangers was an impressive one, as the righty posted a 2.48 ERA in 61 2/3 innings of work. He’d go on to post a 3.34 ERA in 177 2/3 innings of work across five and a half years as a member of the Rangers organization before being traded to the Brewers at the 2022 trade deadline.

While Bush had a 2.95 ERA and a 29.8% strikeout rate at the time of the deal, his time in Milwaukee saw things take a turn for the worse. He posted a pedestrian 4.30 ERA the rest of the way with the Brewers in 2022 before struggling badly in 2023, allowing 11 runs in 10 1/3 innings of work before the Brewers ultimately released him in early July. Bush landed back in Texas on a minor league deal shortly thereafter and has been pitching in the Rangers’ minor league system ever since. Bush has posted strong numbers at the minor league level this season, with a 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 innings of work between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Now, Bush will get a chance to pitch for the Rangers as they look to clinch their first postseason appearance since 2016.

Exiting the roster in favor of Bush is left-hander Jake Latz, who has posted 6 1/3 scoreless innings for the Rangers across three appearances since being called up earlier this month. To make room on the 40-man roster, the Rangers DFA’d Speas, a 25-year-old rookie. The right-hander made his MLB debut back in July but struggled badly across three appearances, allowing three runs in two innings of work.

Padres Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Padres announced this afternoon that the club has selected the contract of catcher Chandler Seagle. In corresponding moves, catcher Luis Campusano was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right ankle sprain, while right-hander Joe Musgrove was transferred to the 60-day IL to open space on the 40-man roster.

Seagle, 27, was a 30th-round pick by the Padres in the 2017 draft. He’s never hit much throughout his career in the minors, with a career .204/.277/.287 slash line in 287 games as a professional. Still, Seagle has managed to climb through the minor leagues steadily throughout his career thanks to a strong glove behind the plate. That defensive prowess has now earned him his first big league opportunity, where he’ll provide insurance for the Padres behind Brett Sullivan. If Seagle gets into a game before the regular season comes to a close tomorrow, it will be his major league debut.

The opportunity for Seagle comes at the expense of Campusano, whose season has ended prematurely. The 24-year-old backstop dealt with injuries throughout much of the 2023 campaign, with a sprained thumb causing him to miss three months. Since returning from the injured list, however, Campusano has done nothing but hit with a .331/.375/.500 slash line in 152 trips to the plate. The offensive potential Campusano flashed through the season’s final months serves as a reminder of the young catcher’s former top prospect status; he was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport as recently as the 2022 season. Looking ahead to 2024, Campusano figures to get every opportunity to seize an everyday role as the club’s catcher coming out of Spring Training.

Musgrove’s move to the 60-day IL comes as no surprise and is nothing more than procedural; the right-hander has been out since late July with shoulder inflammation and was announced as shut down for the season earlier this month. Musgrove was limited to just 97 1/3 innings across 17 starts this season due to injuries but was effective as always when healthy, with a 3.05 ERA and 3.52 FIP. Heading into next year, Musgrove figures to again be a front-of-the-rotation piece for the club during his age-31 season.

Mets Place Brandon Nimmo On 10-Day Injured List

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Brandon Nimmo’s 2023 season is over, as the Mets placed the outfielder on the 10-day injured list due to a right shoulder sprain.  The placement is retroactive to September 29, and catcher Michael Perez was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding roster move.

Manager Buck Showalter told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (X links) and other reporters that Nimmo’s injury is related to his AC joint.  An MRI didn’t reveal any damage to the rotator cuff, so it doesn’t appear to be a particularly serious issue or anything that would hamper Nimmo’s readiness for Spring Training.  Nimmo even told the Athletic’s Tim Britton and other media that he would’ve kept playing if the Mets had still been in playoff contention, and that he should need only 10-14 days to recovery.

Injuries have often plagued Nimmo during his career, yet he followed up a career-best 151 games and 672 plate appearances in 2022 by narrowly topping both marks in 2023, playing 152 games and making 682 trips to the plate.  Nimmo his .274/.363/.466 with a career-high 24 home runs this year, with a 130 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR.

While the Mets’ season as a whole was a disappointment, Nimmo was a bright spot, and his continued good health provides some extra relief given his long-term importance to the team.  New York re-signed Nimmo to an eight-year, $162MM free agent deal last winter, which outpaced even the most optimistic projections for a player whose injury history (though not his production when healthy) was such a question mark.  It’s obviously too early to call the signing a clear win just yet, but Nimmo’s continued strong play beyond his contract year is a good sign that he can be a big part of what the Mets hope will be an eventual return to contention.

Phillies Place Dylan Covey On 15-Day Injured List

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The Phillies announced four roster moves today, including the news that right-hander Dylan Covey was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 28) due to lower back pain.  Infielder Rodolfo Castro was also optioned to the club’s Spring Training complex now that the minor league season is over, while right-hander Luis Ortiz and utilityman Weston Wilson were called up from Triple-A to fill the two open spots on the active roster.

Covey is now ineligible to return until at least October 12, so he wouldn’t be available for a playoff roster unless the Phillies reached the NLCS.  Even in that best-case scenario, the Phillies might not prefer to activate a pitcher coming off an extended layoff, and Covey might have been something of a borderline candidate to make the postseason roster even if healthy.

Regardless of the unfortunate ending, 2023 has still been Covey’s most successful season in the big leagues.  He posted a 6.57 ERA over 264 1/3 innings with the White Sox and Red Sox from 2017-20 before heading to the Chinese Professional Baseball League for two seasons with the Rakuten Monkeys.  Covey pitched well enough to attract the attention of North America, and he inked a minor league deal with the Dodgers that resulted in a single MLB game in Dodger Blue.

Covey was designated for assignment after that lone game in May but quickly claimed off waivers by the Phillies.  Powered by a 54.3% grounder rate and a lot of soft contact, Covey has a 3.69 ERA over 39 innings with Philadelphia, posting some quality bottom-line results despite a very modest 15.7% strikeout rate.  Even his ERA is somewhat skewed by Covey’s lone start with the Phillies, as he lasted just two-thirds of an inning while allowing five earned runs.  In 42 1/3 other innings as a reliever in 2023, Covey’s ERA is 2.76.

Orioles Designate Jorge Lopez For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that right-hander Jorge Lopez was designated for assignment.  Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann was called up from Triple-A to take Lopez’s spot on the active roster.

Baltimore claimed Lopez off waivers from the Marlins at the start of September, and Lopez posted a 6.10 ERA over 10 1/3 innings of work in the orange-and-black.  While Lopez had a 28% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate over his brief time with the O’s, he also allowed four home runs, sending his ERA skyrocketing.  Lopez was ineligible for postseason play since he was acquired after September 1, and since he was looking like a clear non-tender candidate anyway, the Orioles look to have started his path to free agency a little early.  In all likelihood, Lopez will clear waivers and then be released, unless a team wants to take a quick evaluation before the offseason officially begins.

Lopez has a 5.53 ERA over 478 1/3 innings in the majors, appearing with five different teams over an eight-season career that began in 2015.  The clear highlight of Lopez’s career came during his first stint with the Orioles, when his exceptional first-half performance earned him a spot on the 2022 All-Star team.  The O’s were in postseason contention at last year’s trade deadline, but the team opted to sell high on Lopez by dealing him to the Twins for a four-player package that included Yennier Cano (an All-Star himself in 2023) and left-hander Cade Povich, arguably Baltimore’s top current pitching prospect.

It was a wise move on the Orioles’ part, as Lopez immediately started to regress in Minnesota.  Those struggles deepened in 2023, as Lopez posted a 6.12 ERA over 57 1/3 combined innings with the Twins, Marlins, and Orioles.  Minnesota dealt Lopez to Miami at the trade deadline for Dylan Floro in something of a mutual change-of-scenery deal for both relievers, though neither got on track on a new team. (By coincidence, the Twins just released Floro yesterday.)

Lopez earned $3.625MM in 2023, and would be in line for some kind of minimal raise in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility.  The 30-year-old may have to settle for a minor league deal this winter, in the wake of such a disappointing season.

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