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2024 United States Senate election in Florida - Wikipedia Jump to content

2024 United States Senate election in Florida

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2024 United States Senate election in Florida

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Rick Scott Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Rick Scott
Republican



The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Republican incumbent Rick Scott is seeking a second term. He is being challenged by Democratic former congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Primary elections took place on August 20, 2024.[1]

Background

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Long one of the core swing states, Florida has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, with Donald Trump carrying Florida by about three and a half percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.[2]

As a result of that trend, Republicans have seen much more success in the state in recent years. That was most prevalent when the Florida GOP saw landslide victories in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As of 2024, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.[3]

Scott was first elected in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson.[4] With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits consider the race to be favoring Scott to win re-election.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Keith Gross
Rick Scott
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
  • 19 Republican U.S. representatives from Florida[17]
Governors
Statewide officials
State legislators
Territorial legislators
Local officials
  • 11 state attorneys[19]
  • 59 county sheriffs[22]
  • 115 county commissioners[23]
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
John Columbus (R) $23,174 $22,857 $317
Keith Gross (R) $2,449,122[a] $2,440,444 $8,679
Rick Scott (R) $29,350,647[b] $26,466,192 $4,345,058
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Results

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Results by county:
  Scott
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Scott (incumbent) 1,282,795 84.4%
Republican Keith Gross 142,224 9.4%
Republican John Columbus 95,211 6.3%
Total votes 1,520,230 100.0%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Stanley Campbell
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Rod Joseph
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Stanley Campbell (D) $1,081,092[g] $687,145 $394,415
Rod Joseph (D) $28,596 $20,855 $7,741
Alan Grayson (D)[h] $728,813[i] $582,703 $150,148
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) $12,133,366 $7,802,905 $4,330,461
Brian Rush (D) $82,333[j] $63,529 $18,804
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Alan
Grayson
Debbie Mucarsel-
Powell
Undecided
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research June 8–9, 2024 346 (RV) ± 3.3% 12% 43% 45%

Results

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Results by county:
  Mucarsel-Powell
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Campbell
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 746,837 68.5%
Democratic Stanley Campbell 213,596 19.6%
Democratic Brian Rush 72,940 6.7%
Democratic Rod Joseph 56,905 5.2%
Total votes 1,090,278 100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Feena Bonoan (Libertarian), artist and nominee for U.S. Senate in Hawaii in 2022[6]
  • Ben Everidge (Independent), fundraising consultant and former legislative consultant to U.S. Senators Lawton Chiles and Ben Nelson[6]
  • Howard Knepper (write-in), real estate developer and perennial candidate[6]
  • Tuan Nguyen (Independent), system engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[6]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Likely R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[77] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] Likely R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[79] Likely R June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[80] Likely R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[81] Very Likely R November 21, 2023

Polling

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Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Rick
Scott (R)
Debbie Mucarsel-
Powell (D)
Other /
Undecided
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
August 10–11, 2024 1,055 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 43% 11%[l]
1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 43% 9%[m]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[A] August 6–8, 2024 800 (LV) 52% 42% 7%
University of North Florida July 24–27, 2024 774 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 43% 11%[n]
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
June 8–9, 2024 883 (A) ± 3.3% 44% 40% 16%[o]
771 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 43% 12%[p]
The Tyson Group (R) June 6–9, 2024 1,050 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 33% 21%
CBS News/YouGov May 10–16, 2024 1,209 (RV) ± 3.9% 45% 37% 19%
Cherry Communications (R)[B] April 28 – May 7, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 54% 39% 7%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
April 15–17, 2024 865 (RV) ± 3.3% 52% 35% 14%[q]
815 (LV) ± 3.3% 53% 36% 12%[p]
USA Today/Ipsos April 5–7, 2024 1,014 (A) ± 4.1% 36% 26% 38%[r]
Emerson College April 3–7, 2024 608 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] February 29 – March 1, 2024 790 (V) ± 3.5% 44% 41%
Global Strategy Group (D)[D] July 5–10, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 44% 13%
Hypothetical polling

Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Rick
Scott (R)
Phil
Ehr (D)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[E] June 27–29, 2023 1,298 (LV) ? 45% 41% 14%[s]

Notes

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  1. ^ $2,255,605 of this total was self-funded by Gross
  2. ^ $12,563,834 of this total was self-funded by Scott
  3. ^ Candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2022; candidate for Florida's 9th congressional district in 2018; write-in candidate for Florida's 6th congressional district in 2020; candidate for Florida's 10th congressional district in 2022
  4. ^ Numbered as the 11th from 2007–2013
  5. ^ Numbered as the 22nd from 2013–2017 & the 21st from 2017–2023
  6. ^ Numbered as the 20th from 2005–2013 & the 23rd from 2013–2023
  7. ^ $1,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Campbell
  8. ^ Withdrawn candidate. Fundraising numbers as of March 31, 2024.
  9. ^ $454,105 of this total was self-funded by Grayson
  10. ^ $12,000 of this total was self-funded by Rush
  11. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  12. ^ "Another Candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  13. ^ "Another Candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with <1%
  15. ^ "Some other candidate" with 6%
  16. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 4%
  17. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  18. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  19. ^ Includes "would not vote" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Associated Industries of Florida
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
  3. ^ The poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Mucarsel-Powell
  4. ^ This poll was commissioned by the DSCC
  5. ^ Poll commissioned for Phil Ehr

References

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  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ^ "Florida 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  3. ^ Fineout, Gary (November 9, 2022). "Florida Republicans get a 'win for the ages'". POLITICO. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  4. ^ "Florida | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  5. ^ Caputo, Marc (January 26, 2023). "Sen. Rick Scott is running for re-election pushing his controversial 'Rescue' plan". NBC News. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
  6. ^ a b c d e "Candidate Tracking System". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  7. ^ Ogles, Jacob (April 11, 2023). "Keith Gross launches GOP Primary challenge to Rick Scott". Florida Politics.
  8. ^ Dorn, Sara (August 28, 2023). "DeSantis Team Denies Trump's Rumor He'll Drop Out Of Presidential Race To Run For Senate". Forbes. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  9. ^ Greenwood, Max (December 14, 2022). "Rick Scott faces uncertain future after bruising midterm year". One GOP operative suggested Rep. Byron Donalds, a first-term congressman from southwest Florida, as a possible rival [to Scott].
  10. ^ a b c Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  11. ^ "Sixty Days for 3.14.23 — A prime-time look at the 2023 Legislative Regular Session". U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, declining to challenge U.S. Rick Scott in 2024.
  12. ^ "Republican Liberty Caucus Makes Endorsement in Florida U.S. Senate Primary". West Orlando News. April 13, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  13. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". boltonpac.com. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  14. ^ Daugherty, Eric (October 13, 2023). "Rick Scott endorsed by Mike Pompeo for reelection". Florida's Voice. Archived from the original on October 13, 2023. Retrieved October 13, 2023.
  15. ^ Gancarski, A.G. (December 5, 2023). "Donald Trump endorses Rick Scott for re-election". Florida Politics. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  16. ^ a b "RJC PAC Endorses Champions of the Jewish Community, Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, for Re-Election". Republican Jewish Coalition. July 12, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  17. ^ a b Ogles, Jacob (March 6, 2024). "Republicans in Florida congressional delegation back Rick Scott for re-election". Florida Politics. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  18. ^ a b c Gancarski, A.G. (April 27, 2024). "Rick Scott touts Puerto Rican leaders' support for re-election bid". Florida Politics.
  19. ^ a b c Scheckner, Jesse (April 8, 2024). "'A stalwart defender of law enforcement': Rick Scott nabs endorsements from Ashley Moody, Pam Bondi, 11 State Attorneys". Florida Politics.
  20. ^ DeLisa, Caden (February 26, 2024). "Wilton Simpson endorses Rick Scott for reelection". The Capitolist. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  21. ^ Ogles, Jacob (January 30, 2024). "In effort to stamp out Primary challenge, Rick Scott nabs support from 80 Florida lawmakers". Florida Politics.
  22. ^ Wilson, Drew (July 24, 2023). "Rick Scott earns endorsements from 59 Florida Sheriffs for 2024 re-election bid". Florida Politics.
  23. ^ Gancarski, A.G. (June 27, 2024). "In latest show of strength, Rick Scott endorsed by 115 County Commissioners". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
  24. ^ Ogles, Jacob (June 26, 2023). "Senior citizen group endorses Rick Scott's re-election". Florida Politics.
  25. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  26. ^ Ogles, Jacob (September 15, 2023). "Florida builders, contractors endorse Rick Scott's re-election bid". Florida Politics.
  27. ^ "Club for Growth endorses Scott and dings McConnell".
  28. ^ McCool, Jim (January 20, 2024). "Florida Realtors Endorse Rick Scott's 2024 Campaign". The Floridian Press. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  29. ^ Cooper, Amber (September 18, 2023). "Florida Police Chiefs Association endorses Rick Scott's 2024 reelection bid". Florida's Voice. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  30. ^ Daugherty, Eric (March 25, 2024). "Rick Scott gains endorsement from local builders in reelection bid". Florida's Voice. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  31. ^ "Florida's Small Business Community Endorses U.S. Sen. Rick Scott for Re-Election". NFIB. May 13, 2024. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
  32. ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  33. ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Florida". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  34. ^ "Former US Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell to challenge Rick Scott for Senate seat - CBS Miami". www.cbsnews.com. August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2023.
  35. ^ Fontenay, Blake (November 10, 2023). "Brother of 2 Live Crew rapper Luther Campbell challenges Rick Scott for U.S. Senate seat". Treasure Coast Newspapers. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  36. ^ Derby, Kevin (February 23, 2023). "Rick Scott Plans to Hit Every County in Florida During Reelection Campaign". Florida Daily. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  37. ^ Perry, Mitch (November 20, 2023). "New group of Dem state lawmakers announce support for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Florida Phoenix. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  38. ^ Fineout, Gary (October 18, 2023). "Challenger to Rick Scott drops out of Florida Senate race". POLITICO. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  39. ^ Ogles, Jacob (June 11, 2024). "Alan Grayson withdraws from U.S. Senate race, files in SD 25". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  40. ^ a b c "Can Florida Democrats Find Anyone (at All) to Run for Senate?". March 27, 2023.
  41. ^ Dixon, Matt (August 21, 2023). "Top Florida Democrat passes on challenging Sen. Rick Scott in 2024". NBC News. Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is not running against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the state legislature.
  42. ^ a b Covey, Erin (April 4, 2023). "Florida Senate: A Cloudy Forecast for Democrats". Retrieved April 4, 2023.
  43. ^ Ogles, Jacob (September 6, 2023). "Anna Eskamani kicks off re-election campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  44. ^ a b c d e f Ogles, Jacob (September 21, 2023). "4 Florida members of Congress endorse Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  45. ^ Dixon, Matt; Allen, Jonathan (May 8, 2023). "Democratic donors hope to recruit NBA legends Grant Hill and Dwyane Wade to run for Senate in Florida". NBC News. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  46. ^ a b c Ogles, Jacob (October 19, 2023). "10 sitting, former state lawmakers back Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  47. ^ a b c Gancarski, A.G. (April 13, 2024). "Stanley Campbell trumpets endorsements for underdog Senate campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  48. ^ Caputo, Liv (June 24, 2024). "Democratic Senate Candidate Stanley Campbell Scores Florida AFL-CIO Endorsement". The Floridian. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
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  51. ^ Ogles, Jacob (January 13, 2024). "Val Demings backs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  52. ^ a b "GIFFORDS Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for US Senate". Giffords. August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
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  55. ^ Scheckner, Jesse (February 16, 2024). "6 state lawmakers back Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2024.
  56. ^ Ogles, Jacob (June 17, 2024). "Debbie Mucarsel-Powell announces endorsements from Black leaders across Florida". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  57. ^ Ogles, Jacob (August 3, 2024). "Debbie Mucarsel-Powell lands more union support with AFSCME nod". Florida Politics. Retrieved August 4, 2024.
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  62. ^ "Elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and expand our Democratic Senate majority!". ActBlue. August 22, 2023. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
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  65. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  66. ^ "Human Rights Campaign PAC Endorses Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Human Rights Campaign. February 21, 2024. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  67. ^ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
  68. ^ "Latino Victory Fund Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for United States Senate". Latino Victory. March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  69. ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
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  72. ^ McGill Johnson, Alexis. "ENDORSEMENT: Planned Parenthood Action Fund Backs Alsobrooks, Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved May 21, 2024.
  73. ^ "Candidates". PODER PAC. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  74. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for the U.S. Senate". Reproductive Freedom for All. February 8, 2024. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
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Official campaign websites