2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
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| Elections in Tennessee |
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 Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn will face off against state representative Gloria Johnson. This is the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat.[1]
The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations.
Background
[edit]At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupy both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.
Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race is currently considered a "Safe" Republican hold.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Marsha Blackburn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)[2]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Tres Wittum, legislative policy analyst and candidate for Tennessee's 5th congressional district in 2022[3]
Endorsements
[edit]Marsha Blackburn
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States[4]
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | $14,501,964 | $6,339,437 | $8,776,627 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[8] | |||
Results
[edit]
Blackburn
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) | 367,716 | 89.48% | |
| Republican | Tres Wittum | 43,238 | 10.52% | |
| Total votes | 410,954 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Gloria Johnson, state representative from the 90th district (2013–2015, 2019–present) and member of the Tennessee Three[9]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Marquita Bradshaw, staffing consultant and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[10]
- Lola Brown, minister[3]
- Civil Miller-Watkins, former Fayette County school board member[11]
Declined
[edit]- Joanne Sowell, attorney[12]
Endorsements
[edit]Gloria Johnson
- Individuals
- Ruby Amanfu, musician[13]
- Kyshona Armstrong, musician[13]
- Sam Ashworth, musician[13]
- Mya Byrne, musician[13]
- Brandi Carlile, musician[13]
- Beth Nielsen Chapman, musician[13]
- Shelly Colvin, musician[13]
- Elizabeth Cook, musician[13]
- Brooke Eden, musician[13]
- Kam Franklin, musician[13]
- Mary Gauthier, musician[13]
- Devon Gilfillian, musician[13]
- Emmylou Harris, musician[13]
- Brittany Howard, musician[13]
- Meghan Linsey, musician[13]
- Paul McDonald, musician[13]
- Erin Rae McKaskle, musician[13]
- Morgxn, musician[13]
- Maren Morris, musician[13]
- Katie Pruitt, musician[13]
- Allison Russell, musician[13]
- Amanda Shires, musician[13]
- Lucie Silvas, musician[13]
- Langhorne Slim, musician[13]
- Brittney Spencer, musician[13]
- Lilly Winwood, musician[13]
- Organizations
- Labor unions
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | $36,054 | $35,691 | $364 |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,046,183 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[8] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marquita Bradshaw |
Gloria Johnson |
Civil Miller-Watkins |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 282 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 7% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 52% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 251 (LV) | ± 2.66% | 11% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 45% |
Results
[edit]
Johnson
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
Miller-Watkins
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gloria Johnson | 143,904 | 70.20% | |
| Democratic | Marquita Bradshaw | 44,635 | 21.77% | |
| Democratic | Lola Brown | 10,025 | 4.89% | |
| Democratic | Civil Miller-Watkins | 6,420 | 3.13% | |
| Total votes | 204,984 | 100.00% | ||
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Tharon Chandler, farmer and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 7th congressional district in 2016[3]
- Pamela Moses, community activist and convicted felon[3]
- Hastina Robinson, firefighter[3]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[20] | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[21] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[22] | Safe R | November 21, 2023 |
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | $14,501,964 | $6,339,437 | $8,776,627 |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,069,008 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[8] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
Gloria Johnson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| 944 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 52% | 32% | 16% | ||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 955 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 850 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 49% | 29% | 23% |
Hypothetical polling
- Marsha Blackburn vs. Marquita Bradshaw
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
Marquita Bradshaw (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 51% | 33% | 17% |
| 942 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 54% | 33% | 14% | ||
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 947 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 824 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 48% | 36% | 17% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) | ||||
| Democratic | Gloria Johnson | ||||
| Independent | Tharon Chandler | N/A | |||
| Independent | Pamela Moses | N/A | |||
| Independent | Hastina Robinson | N/A | |||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- Elections in Tennessee
- Political party strength in Tennessee
- Tennessee Democratic Party
- Tennessee Republican Party
- Government of Tennessee
- 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee
- 2024 Tennessee elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "Results for Women in the August 1st Primaries in Tennessee". cawp.rutgers.edu.
- ^ "Tennessee US Senate Poll". October 17, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e "Candidate Lists | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ "Trump Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Re-Election: "A Friend and a WINNER" - Sen. Marsha Blackburn Campaign Press Release | LegiStorm". www.legistorm.com. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ "Press Releases | Maggie's List". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
- ^ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Tennessee". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ Kamisar, Ben (September 5, 2023). "Tennessee Democrat reprimanded for gun violence protest is running for Senate". NBC News. Retrieved September 5, 2023.
- ^ Elliott, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Former Nominee Marquita Bradshaw Running for Senate Again". Nashville Scene. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ McCall, Holly (October 26, 2023). "Fayette County educator Civil Miller-Watkins enters Democratic primary for 2024 Tenn. U.S. Senate". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved January 6, 2024.
- ^ Elliott, Stephen (July 14, 2023). "Nashville attorney ends U.S. Senate campaign effort". Nashville Post. Retrieved July 16, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Bloom, Madison (March 13, 2024). "Brittany Howard, Allison Russell, Maren Morris, and More Support U.S. Senate Candidate Gloria Johnson With New Song: Listen". Pitchfork. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites