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Winter mortality in a warming climate: a reassessment
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Winter mortality in a warming climate: a reassessment

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  • Kristie L. Ebi
  • David Mills

Abstract

In temperate climates, mortality is higher in the winter than the summer. Most wintertime deaths are attributed to cardiovascular and respiratory disease, with hypothermia from extreme cold accounting for a negligible share of all recorded deaths. International and national assessments of the health risks of climate change often conclude that increased temperatures from climate change will likely reduce winter mortality. This article examines the support for this hypothesis. We find that although there is a physiological basis for increased cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality during winter months, the limited evidence suggests cardiovascular disease mortality is only weakly associated with temperature. Although respiratory disease mortality shows a stronger seasonal relationship with colder temperatures, cold alone does not explain infection rates. Further, respiratory disease mortality is a relatively small proportion of winter deaths. Therefore, assuming no changes in acclimatization and the degree to which temperature‐related deaths are prevented, climate change may alter the balance of deaths between winters and summers, but is unlikely to dramatically reduce overall winter mortality rates. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:203–212. doi: 10.1002/wcc.211 This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

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  • Kristie L. Ebi & David Mills, 2013. "Winter mortality in a warming climate: a reassessment," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3), pages 203-212, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:4:y:2013:i:3:p:203-212
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.211
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Estimation of Climate Change Damage Functions for 140 Regions in the GTAP 9 Database," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 78-115, December.
    2. Brown, Molly & Antle, John & Backlund, Peter & Carr, Edward & Easterling, Bill & Walsh, Margaret & Ammann, Caspar & Attavanich, Witsanu & Barrett, Chris & Bellemare, Marc & Dancheck, Violet & Funk, Ch, 2015. "Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System," MPRA Paper 105772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dellink, Rob & Lanzi, Elisa, 2017. "The joint economic consequences of climate change and air pollution," Conference papers 332909, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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