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Estimation of climate change damage functions for 140 regions in the GTAP9 database
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Estimation of climate change damage functions for 140 regions in the GTAP9 database

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  • Martina Sartori
  • Roberto Roson

Abstract

This paper provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific climate change damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows and households' energy demand. All parameters of the six damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in the GTAP9 dataset. a new set of climate change damage functions has been presented, improving earlier estimates in several ways. First, functions and parameters are provided with a large regional disaggregation (140 countries) and in a format which, by referring to the latest GTAP social accounting matrix, makes them easily employable in many CGE and CGE-based models. Information from new, recently available studies, typically from the non economic literature, has been processed in such a way that parameter values for economic variables, like labor productivity, can be estimated. To illustrate the salient characteristics of our estimates, we approximate the change in real GDP for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3°C. After considering the overall impact, we highlight which factor is the most significant one in each country, and we elaborate on the distributional consequences of climate change. In addition to tourism income, variations in agricultural and labor productivity are also very relevant in many countries. Sea level rise, on the other hand, never appears as the primary factor, because of its limited incidence on total land and the relative small share of land income on GDP. Our findings confirm that the negative effects of climate change will be mainly borne by developing countries, located in tropical regions.

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  • Martina Sartori & Roberto Roson, 2016. "Estimation of climate change damage functions for 140 regions in the GTAP9 database," EcoMod2016 9171, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:009007:9171
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    Keywords

    Worldwide; Modeling: new developments; Impact and scenario analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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