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Euro Area Government Bonds—Integration and Fragmentation During the Sovereign Debt Crisis
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Euro Area Government Bonds—Integration and Fragmentation During the Sovereign Debt Crisis

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  • Michael Ehrmann
  • Marcel Fratzscher

Abstract

The paper analyzes the integration of euro area sovereign bond markets during the European sovereign debt crisis. It tests for contagion (i.e., an intensification in the transmission of shocks across countries), fragmentation (a reduction in spillovers) and flight-to-quality patterns, exploiting the heteroskedasticity of intraday changes in bond yields for identification. The paper finds that euro area government bond markets were well integrated prior to the crisis, but saw a substantial fragmentation from 2010 onward. Flight to quality was present at the height of the crisis, but has largely dissipated after the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program in 2012. At the same time, Italy and Spain became more interdependent after the OMT announcement, providing our only evidence of contagion. While this suggests that countries have been effectively ring-fenced, and Italy and Spain benefited from the joint reduction in yields following the OMT announcement, the high current degree of fragmentation poses difficult challenges for policy-makers, since it leads to an unequal transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy to the various countries.

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  • Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2015. "Euro Area Government Bonds—Integration and Fragmentation During the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Staff Working Papers 15-13, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:15-13
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    Cited by:

    1. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4617-4631, September.
    2. Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "Europe at the Interdependence War," EconPol Working Paper 2, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Francesco Saraceno & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "How can it work? On the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone," DEM Working Papers 2015/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Avgeri, I. & Dendramis, Y. & Louri, H., 2021. "The Single Supervisory Mechanism and its implications for the profitability of European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Kolev, Atanas & Maurin, Laurent & Ségol, Matthieu, 2019. "What firms don't like about bank loans: New evidence from survey data," EIB Working Papers 2019/07, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    6. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Current account imbalances and the Euro Area. Controversies and policy lessons," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 203-234, April.
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4ppcskgnsc8tmbhdrupis355j7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Boeing-Reicher, Claire A. & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2017. "Estimating the effects of the "flight to quality", with an application to German bond yields and interest payments," Kiel Working Papers 2086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area: Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Nicolas Afflatet, 2019. "Public Interest Payments and Bond Yields: A Panel Data Estimation for the Eurozone," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 109-117, January.
    11. Francesco Saraceno & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "How can it work? On the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone," DEM Working Papers 2015/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ppcskgnsc8tmbhdrupis355j7 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Yakim Kitanov, 2015. "Are Risk Free Government Bonds Risk Free Indeed," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 9(1), pages 523-530.
    14. Krause Montalbert, Stefan, 2018. "Mutualizing Euro Area debt without a Fiscal Union," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 36(2), July.
    15. Guillaume Horny & Simone Manganelli & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Measuring Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Corporate Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, October.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ei7u710bj9par121c71ul9fdr is not listed on IDEAS
    17. van Riet, Ad, 2017. "Addressing the safety trilemma: a safe sovereign asset for the eurozone," ESRB Working Paper Series 35, European Systemic Risk Board.
    18. Atanas Kolev & Laurent Maurin & Matthieu Segol, 2022. "What Makes Firms Dissatisfied with Their Bank Loans: New Evidence from Survey Data," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 407-430, June.
    19. Igor Velickovski & Aleksandar Stojkov & Ivana Rajkovic, 2017. "DIS Union of the Core and the Periphery," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 159-174.
    20. Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and the Euro Zone. Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4ei7u710bj9par121c71ul9fdr is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Helen Louri & Mike Tsionas, 2019. "Nonperforming loans in the euro area: Are core–periphery banking markets fragmented?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 97-112, January.
    23. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    24. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2017. "Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: identification by absolute magnitude restrictions," Working Paper Series 2055, European Central Bank.
    25. Velimir Lukić, 2016. "Integration of Government Bond Market in the Euro Area and Monetary Policy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 71-97.

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    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Financial markets; Interest rates; International financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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