Welcome to the liveblog, everyone.
First, our preview for tonight is HERE.
Results:
Kentucky (6 PM East / 7 PM West): DDHQ | AP
CA-20 (10 PM): DDHQ
Idaho (10 PM Most / 11 PM Panhandle): DDHQ | AP
12:14 PM ET: And now he has the AP check as well. I believe that leaves OR-04-R as the only even somewhat major uncalled race.
11:59 PM ET: Simpson has stabilized at a 57-34 lead with 49% in and has the check from DDHQ.
11:57 PM ET: And now so has the AP.
11:50 PM ET: DDHQ has given Dexter the check in OR-03-D.
11:48 PM ET: I’ll try to put together some numbers once the dust settles, but quite a few Republican legislators in Idaho are in competitive primaries right or losing.
11:44 PM ET: Two anti-school-choice incumbents lost their legislative primaries in Kentucky, including one to Thomas Jefferson (yes, really).
11:42 PM ET: Bynum has the check in OR-05-D.
11:39 PM ET: In Idaho, Simpson’s down to a 56-34 lead with 21% in. Thanks to a spoiler taking 10%, it’s hard to see him losing, but this could well end up being a pretty unimpressive showing.
11:34 PM ET: Fong has the check in CA-20. He won a big drop from Kern County (Bakersfield) nearly 3-1, and it’s hard to see how Boudreaux’s base in Tulare can counter that. Fong is currently up 67-33, though that margin will go down once Kings and Tulare report.
11:33 PM ET: In Portland, far-left DA Mike Schmidt is currently trailing his more moderate challenger, Nathan Vasquez, 58-42.
11:27 PM ET: All row office primaries in Oregon have already been called, and there are no surprises. AG: R: Lathrop. D: Rayfield. SoS: R: Linthicum. D: Read. Treas: D: Steiner.
11:24 PM ET: In OR-05-D, Bynum leads McLeod-Skinner 70-30.
11:23 PM ET: In OR-04-R, DeSpain leads Courser 58.5-41.5.
11:22 PM ET: In OR-03-D, Dexter leads Jayapal 53-25 with 37% in.
11:21 PM ET: In ID-02-R, incumbent Simpson leads 59.6-30.7 with 10% in.
11:19 PM ET: In CA-20, Fong leads Boudreaux 56-44 with 20% in. The votes are all from Fresno County.
11:16 PM ET: Jack and Dugan have gotten checks for the runoff.
11:00 PM ET: Polls have closed in Oregon and the rest of Idaho.
10:43 PM ET: Jack has fallen to 46.9% with 80% in. A runoff with Dugan is looking very likely.
10:04 PM ET: Scott is just below 60% with 79% in and has the check. Not only has Flowers’ attempt to carpetbag his anti-Greene grift into a congressional seat failed, he’s still stuck in third place, and closer to fourth than second.
10:01 PM ET: Checking back in Georgia, counting is still slow. In GA-03-R, Jack leads with 47.5% with 70% in. Dugan has taken a clear and almost certainly insuperable lead for second 27.7-13.5. The main question is whether Jack can make it past 50% and avoid a runoff.
10:00 PM ET: Polls have closed in CA-20 and most of Idaho.
8:57 PM ET: As more comes in, Jack has been creeping closer to the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, while Dugan’s lead over Crane for second declines. It’s now Jack 48.3%, Dugan 20.7%, Crane 17.8% with 44% in.
8:43 PM ET: Pinson is now up to 56-44 in the Supreme Court race. Not much has changed in GA-03 and GA-13.
7:58 PM ET: Not much has changed margin-wise for Supreme Court. To illustrate how well Pinson is doing in the Atlanta area, he is winning Clayton County (Biden+71), Rockdale County (Biden+41), Douglas County (Biden+25), and Cobb County (Biden+14). He’s winning Biden+18 Gwinnett County by 9 points. The only Atlanta-area counties he’s actually losing are Fulton (Biden+46) by 7 points and DeKalb (Biden+57) by 20 points.
7:54 PM ET: Over in Trump trial news, DA Fani Willis and judge Scott McAfee have both won their primaries.
7:51 PM ET: GA-03 is counting relatively slowly at just 18% in. Jack leads 46-26 over Dugan with Crane at 17%.
7:47 PM ET: Scott is looking a lot safer in GA-13 as the western counties are starting to come in – he’s now at 62.6% with 47% in and DDHQ has given him the check. Flowers is still in third and not even breaking double digits. There is really an impressively-even splitting of the anti-Scott vote – the other 3 candidates are within a point of each other.
7:45 PM ET: The calls are starting to come in for Pinson. He’s massively overperforming in the Atlanta area, drowning out whatever strength Barrow has in rural Georgia.
7:29 PM ET: Pinson leads 55-45 for the state Supreme Court. He looks fairly safe, though this race is not following regular partisan patterns super closely. Barrow is outrunning Biden in much of white rural Georgia, particularly his former district, while Pinson is massively outperforming Trump in the Atlanta area.
7:25 PM ET: Over in GA-06, there doesn’t seem to be much of interest going on. McBath has 88% with 28% in. I think we can put this one to bed quickly too.
7:22 PM ET: With 22% in, Scott in GA-13 leads with 54.7%, in danger of runoff territory, though the areas in (Rockdale and Gwinnett) are largely new to him. There is a surprisingly close fight for second place, with Baker leading Flowers 12.5-12.
7:11 PM ET: Rogers gets the check. 39% in and his margin has barely changed. That puts Kentucky to bed above the legislative level.
7:00 PM ET: Polls have closed in Georgia and the rest of Kentucky.
6:17 PM ET: So far Hal Rogers in KY-05 doesn’t look vulnerable – he leads 82-9 with 3% in.
6:00 PM ET: Polls have closed in most of Kentucky.
51 Comments
There seems to be some interesting legislative primaries in KY so if anyone sees incumbents losing please post.
Barring anything from Atlanta, right now I would rather be pinson. Running about 7 points ahead of trump in Liberty County (black majority/coastal) with 91% reporting
He’s also winning in Douglas and Rockdale, each with over 50% in. Though I’m assuming the outstanding precincts are 80-90% D
NH-1. Forced to reboard on the Trump Train thanks to the Hamas lovers and illegalsPinson is easily going to win if Rockdale is remotely close, that’s a 75-25% D county
Also outright winning Douglas and Rockdale (both Atlanta suburban counties with a large black population) though those still have substantial portions out and it matters there which precincts are in. Meanwhile, he’s underperforming in some heavily white rural counties.
In general this race seems less polarized by party.
M, 27, NY-11, NY-SD-26, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."It’ll definitely be fun to crunch the numbers on this one and notice some weird trends if it holds up.
That said, Dems should note that running a Mark Uterus style candidate doesn’t help with conservative black Dems like it does with upper class white liberals
NH-1. Forced to reboard on the Trump Train thanks to the Hamas lovers and illegalsI mean there is at least 45% in GA that would vote down a pro-abortion referendum. Georgia is a relatively pro-life state, this isn’t WI or AZ. The other thing is that I doubt that black voters actually turned out much at all, they rarely do in non-Prez years where there isn’t a major contested race. (A state SC race isn’t considered major to them) This is the case especially in the South.
Conservative Democrat, Independent until January 2021, R until November 2016.Pinson looks like he is going to win. Although I’m not sure why there’s only 114 K votes in that race while both Presidential primaries suggest near 900K votes in
Conservative Democrat, Independent until January 2021, R until November 2016.Yeah the turnout numbers are a surprise to me too. I would’ve assumed a contested Supreme Court election in a swing state would bring both sides out
NH-1. Forced to reboard on the Trump Train thanks to the Hamas lovers and illegalsI voted for Pinson this afternoon. My Paulding County precinct seemed pretty low turnout. Usually these types of elections don’t get much turnout.
I wrote this before, but I don’t think the abortion message had any appeal to a lot of black voters. From the looks of it, black urban turnout in particular must have been absolutely non-existent.
One side note, regarding Barrow’s over performance across much of central and south Georgia, that doesn’t surprise me. He held a congressional district in these areas and he was very conservative. I mean he voted against Obamacare and was endorsed by the NRA. Weirdly, given his pro-abortion stance now, he was actually pretty pro-life while in office too…I hate politicians like this.
All that to say, a lot of people in these rural areas still remember him fondly and probably have no clue he is pro abortion.
Ga-14 (Sadly Marjorie)Economically - Leans Conservative
Socially - Strongly Orthodox Presbyterian
Barrow voted against Obamacare *because* it didn’t stop it from funding abortion. Barrow was considered a pro-life D while in Congress and I think he was still pro-life even when he ran for SoS in 2018. I mean I get that people may change their views, but this is shameless.
Conservative Democrat, Independent until January 2021, R until November 2016.Mark Uterus levels of shameless, perhaps!
Politics is the law of 3rd and 4th best, which is why Trump is a unifier, even if grudging. NC-02.He got 100% rating from NARAL and voted against a 20 week abortion ban in Congress according to his wikipedia page. He voted to ban minors from being taken to other states to have abortions.
Right Wing National Populist, Lorain County OhioIt’s why I have never once trusted a Democrat that claims to be pro-life. Not a single one ever puts their money where their mouth is when the going gets tough
The one exception is Dan Lipinski, who unfortunately got successfully primaried by College White Liberals in the primary. That guy actually spoke at pro-life rallies from time-to-time.
Politics is the law of 3rd and 4th best, which is why Trump is a unifier, even if grudging. NC-02.Nothing in from urban Atlanta yet, but the margins for Pinson are looking solid in Biden 2020 counties like Rockdale, Gwinnett and Liberty. Obviously I’ll wait until DeKalb/Fulton report before any major prognostication though, obviously
Metro Atlanta (Fulton County) just dropped in the GA Supreme Court race. Barrow is only up 52-48 with 34% in. This one is over.
Pinson wins reelection, and will probably do so in a blowout.
The Saint of Sin City - @PollProjectUSA on Twitter34% in Fulton County, to clarify.
I mean we knew that before Fulton dropped. Pinson is winning Gwinnett by 9%, Barrow had to win there by 20% at the minimum.
For some reason Pinson is doing poorly in North Georgia, not sure why.
Conservative Democrat, Independent until January 2021, R until November 2016.Yeah but I didn’t think it would be *that* much of an underperformance. Non-partisan races will do that though, especially with lower turnout.
The Saint of Sin City - @PollProjectUSA on TwitterBarrow seems to be doing well in the counties in Georgia he represented in congress.
Right Wing National Populist, Lorain County OhioWhich really makes me think it’s a low-name-recognition thing.
R, 33, ID-1. Californian RefugeeAre any counties fully reported yet? Long says 99% and some other SEGA counties are at 90%+, but I don’t see anything fully yet.
I am an Amy Klobuchar Democrat.Clinch Greene and Teutlan now also at 99%. Barrow doing better than Biden in the southern rurals and Punion doing better than Trump in Greene in exurban Atlanta.
I am an Amy Klobuchar Democrat.Non-partisan nature of the race and way less name recognition for either candidate seems to be doing a lot. Sadly that makes it much harder to draw anything from this race.
Onto the pile it goes!
R, 33, ID-1. Californian RefugeeAgreed. These numbers are quite different from what we’ve seen in terms of voting patterns in Georgia GAs and ROs. Still, data for the pile.
I am an Amy Klobuchar Democrat.DDHQ called for Pinson. Genuinely happy, Andrew is a wonderful person and an absolute top notch legal mind.
I may not know him, but I’m also glad Pinson won. Hate politicians who change their “beliefs” on a whim for political expediency. Tom Harkin campaigned as pro-life in his first Senate race, I’m so glad he’s not sinking up the office anymore. And then there’s Bob “I go whatever way the wind blows” Casey JR. Huge disappointment. Hope he loses this November.
TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican. Trump 2024!!!Well that was over quickly. I’m happy our guy won but i was wishing we were gonna get more of a hint for November
NH-1. Forced to reboard on the Trump Train thanks to the Hamas lovers and illegalsDeKalb numbers are atrocious for Barrow
GA-3 has Jack 45, Dugan 26 with 14% in.
I believe the GA GOP has had a decent night, but really can’t say what this means for November.
R, NC-3Jack crosses 50% — later votes seem relatively Trumpier here. He’s one of the two candidates AIPAC wanted tonight — we’ll see if they can also get Maxine Dexter in Oregon, which I think will be a slightly harder sell. (EDIT: First name Maxine, not Marlene.)
OH-16. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.That seems to have been a fluke of the counting. AP now has him back down around 47% (a look behind the scenes: I was actually in the middle of writing an update in the liveblog to say Jack was now over 50 when I checked back on a number and saw he had fallen back down).
M, 27, NY-11, NY-SD-26, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."Dugan’s home county came in.
Numbers dropped for OR-03 and Dexter is leading 2 to 1 over Jayapal. Thank goodness, glad that the Israel supporter is stomping the anti-Semite. We don’t need any more Jayapals in congress.
Wait, there are Normie Pelosi Dems in Portland? This must be what the Ted Wheeler crowd looks like.
Politics is the law of 3rd and 4th best, which is why Trump is a unifier, even if grudging. NC-02.One of the very few deep-blue districts where a new member may be an upgrade on the old–Dexter certainly won’t be worse than Blumenauer, and Jayapal certainly would have been.
AIPAC has been doing well in primaries this month–it’s been choosing candidates wisely.
Anti-victim politics and grievance politics.https://twitter.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1793090480970023382
BREAKING: The two Kentucky “Republicans” receiving the most money from the teachers unions just lost their elections by more than 40 points tonight.
Their opponents who won support school choice.
Killian Timoney: Lost by 44 points
C. Ed Massey: Lost by 48 points
Bloodbath.
Also, Timoney lost to a guy named Thomas Jefferson. We had a John Adams run for VA-AG a few years ago; now we just need to find a George Washington to run for something.
M, 27, NY-11, NY-SD-26, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."Great news. Wolves is sheep’s clothing.
TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican. Trump 2024!!!CA-20: DDHQ gives Fong the check.
R, NC-3Far left DA for Portland Mike Schmidt goes down 58-42 to Vasquez (R turned I) with almost all votes in.
Between this and Jayapal losing, Portland is behaving oddly sane tonight.
Ultra Progressive Portland DA Mike Schmidt is getting stomped by his moderate challenger Nathan Vasquez 58%-41% with over 50% in. So glad to see this Soros DAs getting thrown out, even in liberal cities. Let them all lose.
Mix the Ted Wheeler crowd, as mentioned above, with the mugged-by-reality club, and even the likes of Ann Davison can get elected in these sorts of races.
Politics is the law of 3rd and 4th best, which is why Trump is a unifier, even if grudging. NC-02.Bynum is crushing JMS, unfortunately but not unexpectedly. Chavez-DeRemer has basically been a normal incumbent House Rep, though, so this race is still a tossup.
Politics is the law of 3rd and 4th best, which is why Trump is a unifier, even if grudging. NC-02.ID-2: Simpson just got the DDHQ check, but I agree with others, not a great showing for him at all.
R, NC-3Some notes on the Idaho Legislature GOP Primaries:
SD-1: Herndon is losing to Woodward, who he knocked off in the 2022 GOP Primary. This is their 3rd primary against each other, and Herndon is a fire-breather type.
SD-6: Foreman is barely ahead in this Moscow-based seat, and is probably most famous for repeatedly insulting his own constituents (calling his district a “cesspool of Liberalism”) and having lost this seat in the 2018 GE to a Democrat before winning it back in 2022. He’s also one of the fiercest anti-Abortion advocates in the country, being fully committed to making it 1st-degree murder.
SD-8: Schroeder is a wild guy anyway, famous for this:
https://onlysky.media/hemant-mehta/an-idaho-atheist-is-about-to-become-state-senator-hes-a-republican/
Probably lost due to being a Dawkins-style Athiest in a very rural Conservative and religious seat that only squeaked in with a ~30% plurality in a divided field anyways.
SD-11: Not sure about Trakel, but he’s mostly a Conservative Back-bencher.
SD-20: Bit of a shocker here, as Chuck Winder is a former Majority leader and is the Pro Tempore of the Senate currently. Also sort of a moderate by ID standards.
SD-25: Hartgen is one of the more moderate Republicans. Losing by this much though was unexpected.
In the Senate at least the IDGOP might have booted its 2 most Conservative members, its 2 most moderate ones, alongside its most senior one and a relative back-bencher in Trakel.
R, 33, ID-1. Californian RefugeeIn political comeback news, 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial nominee Christina Drazan (R) defeated an incumbent for the nomination for a safe Republican house seat. Less successful was former VA-2 candidate Jarome Bell (R), who moved to Idaho and lost to the incumbent for the nomination to State House Seat 12A (although the margin was only about 16 points, which I’d say is respectable for a guy who’s lived in the state less than 2 years)
Also, even though he was unopposed, former OR-4 candidate and hero of the 2015 attempted Islamist attack on a passenger train bound for Paris Alek Skarlatos (R) is officially the GOP nominee for another safe R state house seat.
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.Whatever happened to the walk-out state Senators? Were they denied the right to run again and rotating out?
Yes. Two of our statewide nominees – Linthicum and Boquist – are among them.
M, 27, NY-11, NY-SD-26, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."