Free Expert Picks and Predictions

The Cubs have already been blanked three times since the All-Star break, and Royals starter Cole Ragans should put up some more goose-eggs on the scoreboard today. The southpaw sports a solid 2.70 ERA in July, and the Cubs are 23rd by OPS vs. lefties in 2024. Chicago starter Javier Assad hasn't had much go right since putting up six scoreless innings vs. the Braves on May 15. His ERA is 5.13 over nine subsequent starts. The sinker-baller should have a hard time putting away Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez with that pitch.

Austin Gomber toes the rubber for the Rockies, and he brings a 5.61 road ERA into this one. The lefty will have his hands full trying to contain the Giants' fifth-ranked lineup by OPS vs. lefties (.767). Once Gomber leaves, Colorado's MLB-worst bullpen (5.66 ERA) will take over. Countering for San Francisco is Jordan Hicks, a converted reliever who is clearly running out of gas as a starter (5.91 ERA last 10 starts). The Giants' bullpen is both overtaxed (425 2/3 innings, second-most in MLB) and underachieving (26th by ERA).

There are a lot of new pieces on both offenses and things could take a while to gel in Tennessee. Brian Callahan will be making his first HC gig but also trying to pull off play-calling duties which is never an easy task. It will be a big change in offense for Will Levis as well. The Bears also have a huge curve to overcome with a new QB and new OC. In this game alone, there is a rookie QB with a new OC, QB coach, and passing game coordinator, and the Titans have a 2nd year QB with all new offensive pieces, a new HC, and OC. This could be a messy offensive performance from both sides. 

Anthony Richardson is back at QB for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, but how much will that help one of the league's worst defenses in 2023... which bolstered the front seven but is running it back with a young (and volatile) secondary. A Week 1 matchup vs. Houston — with  C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs — will not do them any favors, plus the Texans also beefed up the defense with veteran defenders Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry.

Kyle Shanahan, at home, vs his former defensive coordinator with a spread inside six points? Sign me up! The 49ers don't mess around on their home field where they have 15 double-digit wins in their last 21 regular season games. San Fran came out flying in their season opener last season when they obliterated the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, by 23 points and I wouldn't be shocked to see a similar result against the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is now 40 years old and a few seasons removed from MVP-caliber play. Many are once again buying the hype on the Jets, but I'm not one of them. 

The summer buzz will focus on how much Florida State lost from last year’s team robbed of a Playoff spot, and understandably so, given the Seminoles return only 58% of last year’s production. But do not overlook how deep of a roster Mike Norvell has built in his five years in Tallahassee. Brent Key will never enjoy such talent at Georgia Tech, and he certainly does not after just one year. Norvell is one of the best game callers in the country, so anytime he has more than a week to prep, he should be given some further credit. Until this spread crosses two touchdowns, trust in Norvell and trust in Florida State’s talent make this an easy choice.

SMU transitions to the ACC this season and while the move to a Power Five (now Four) conference hasn't gone smoothly for some other programs in recent years, not many teams are the Mustangs. They leave the AAC as the reigning champs and return almost every key player from that roster, including quarterback Preston Stone. But these Ponies are powered by defense. This unit ranked sixth in defensive success rate and seventh in EPA last season and their front seven led by Elijah Roberts will be a problem for a Nevada offensive line that ranked 121st in sacks allowed per game. Once we get closer to kickoff I'll probably look at SMU on the first half spread or Nevada to go Under its team total, but for now I'm laying the points with the Ponies on a number that will almost certainly go up.

This spread is a little bit high in favor of the winless Elks. The Tiger-Cats have only been this big an underdog once all season and it was to the West Division-leading BC Lions. A team that cannot run the ball, stop the pass, and is 0-6 should never be more than a 3-point favorite in any scenario. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has 12 touchdowns to only six interceptions on the season for the Tiger-Cats and gets to face a passing defense that has allowed 309.3 passing yards per game to go along with 10 passing touchdowns while forcing only six interceptions. Even if the Elks get their first win of the season, it will not be by four or more points.