The main candidates in Taiwan’s presidential race have advanced dramatically opposing ideas about how the island should handle tensions with China. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Ivy Kwek explains the January vote’s possible consequences for relations between Beijing and Taipei.
Taipei staged major simulation exercise in case of Chinese invasion as Beijing maintained high military activity around island.
Taiwan held major simulation operation to prepare in case of Chinese invasion. Taiwan 22-26 July held largest annual Han Kuang war games as troops simulated “real combat” aimed at resisting hypothetical Chinese invasion; exercises included intensified night-time activities, operations with severed command lines and Wan’an civilian evacuation air defence drill, while live-fire drills took place in outlying islands, Kinmen and Matsu.
Beijing maintained intense maritime activity around Taiwan. As of 30 July, Taipei recorded 397 Chinese aircraft either crossing “unofficial” median line or entering Taiwan’s de facto air defence identification zone (ADIZ). Taiwan Ministry of Defence 11 July detected 66 Chinese warplanes near island, representing highest number in 24-hour window this year. Meanwhile, tensions near Kinmen Islands persisted as three Chinese Coast Guard vessels 2 July stopped Taiwan-registered fishing boat outside of Taiwan-controlled waters near Kinmen; Taiwan’s Coast Guard dispatched two vessels to retrieve fishermen, but stopped pursuit to “avoid escalating conflict” after spotting more Chinese vessels; fishing boat and six crew members were escorted to Fujian province, China, for further investigation. Taiwan 11 July reported intrusion of four Chinese Coast Guard vessels into Taiwan-controlled waters around Kinmen islands.
U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan remained high. Newly appointed director of American Institute in Taiwan Raymond Greene 10 July met with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te at presidential office, Taipei, and reiterated U.S. commitment to boosting Taiwan’s self-defence capabilities. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Ministry 17 July confirmed pause on nascent nuclear non-proliferation talks with U.S., saying that Washington’s arms sales to Taiwan were “seriously undermining the political atmosphere for continued arms control consultations”.
Taiwanese are increasingly having a very distinctive identity different from the mainland China, and... we are seeing a Beijing that is increasingly more powerful.
This election [in Taiwan] marks a change in leadership at a moment when cross-strait tensions are high, and preserving stability has become more of a challenge.
The more Beijing employs coercion on Taiwan, the less effective these actions will [be] on striking fear in the Taiwanese public.
The Xi-Biden meeting provides an … opportunity for the two leaders to convey to each other that neither seeks to overturn the status quo or kinetic conflict.
Beijing will have to publicly condemn [Taiwan President] Tsai’s visit to the US, their ultimate response will depend on what Tsai says and who she meets with on her trip.
At the moment, we think that China has not fully developed the capability to guarantee a sure victory if it chooses to launch a military option on Taiwan.
In this in-person event, experts discuss the political and security situation in and around the Taiwan Strait and how the unofficial relationships between Taiwan and key regional actors may evolve under a new Taiwanese administration.
In this video, Amanda Hsiao explains what is at stake in the dynamic between China, the U.S. and Taiwan and what steps can be taken to reduce pressure in the region.
The danger of armed confrontation over Taiwan is growing, raising the spectre of a direct conflict between China and the U.S. that would have severe global repercussions. Managing this risk will require the parties to rebuild trust by shoring up decades-old understandings.
In this video, Crisis Group’s Giustra Fellow for China Ivy Kwek talks about her work monitoring tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
A visit by Taiwan’s leader to the U.S. brought swift condemnation from China, which stepped up its military activities in the strait separating the mainland from the island. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Amanda Hsiao looks at what these events might portend.
No matter what immediate tit-for-tat reactions there are to the visit, the troubling long-term implication points to the urgent need for the Biden administration and Congress to better coordinate their handling of the Taiwan issue.
Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is planning a visit to Taiwan in early August. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Amanda Hsiao identifies steps the U.S. and China can take to keep frictions minimal should her trip proceed.
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