Years of deadlock between the two main political parties, the Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, have caused governance breakdowns, narrowed political debate, eroded the rule of law and widened social divisions. The continued threat of jihadist violence exacerbates these problems. Meanwhile, Bangladesh struggles to accommodate the presence of an estimated one million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, whose return appears unlikely any time soon. Crisis Group aims to reduce conflict risks, including the spread of militancy, arising from political stagnation; to promote inclusive and accountable democratic institutions; and to urge adequate assistance for the refugees until conditions allow for safe return.
Interim government under Yunus is off to a promising start but must tackle entrenched interests.
Violent crackdown on student protests left at least 200 killed and thousands injured; Myanmar’s conflict fuelled further instability in refugee camps.
Anti-government protests turned deadly, with over 200 killed. Public university students 1 July launched protests against High Court ruling which reinstated quotas for entry level govt jobs, including 30% for children and grandchildren of “freedom fighters” from 1971 Liberation War. Protests turned violent after PM Sheikh Hasina 14 July called protesters “razakars”, derogatory term for collaborators with Pakistani military in 1971 war; notably, pro-govt supporters from Chhatra League and police next day used deadly violence against protesters, killing six people. As more protesters took to streets, violence spread across country and took a turn for the worse on 18 July as police attacked demonstrators, killing dozens of mainly young men and protesters vandalised govt buildings and metro stations in capital Dhaka; authorities subsequently switched off internet nationwide and deployed military, giving shoot-on-sight orders. Supreme Court 21 July scaled back quotas to 7% and student leaders 22 July announced pause. Situation remained stable by end of month, with curfew and internet restrictions relaxed and businesses resuming operations; more than 6,000 have reportedly been arrested nationwide, many from opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami. Police by end of month continued to break up small demonstrations.
Myanmar’s developments created instability at border. As Arakan Army (AA) inched closer to capturing Rakhine state’s Maungdaw city, regime personnel, civilians, and Rohingya armed groups sought refuge in Bangladesh; Bangladeshi authorities who had previously repatriated junta personnel and their family members back to Myanmar 14 July changed course, refusing two boats carrying 60 Myanmar regime personnel. FM Hasan Mahmud 12 July discussed with regime counterpart Than Swe proposal to start Rohingya repatriation as soon as possible.
Rohingya refugee camps saw more clashes. Refugee camps remained restive with renewed clashes between Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), which left at least six people killed in first ten days of July. Increase is likely related to developments in Rakhine state as ARSA and RSO, who are fighting alongside Myanmar’s military, returned to camps.
[For Bangladesh's army] to have sided with Hasina at this juncture would have tarnished their image massively.
The quota protest [in Bangladesh] is just the manifestation of a widespread malaise that’s not just about quotas but also economic and political.
With no real alternative at the ballot box, discontented Bangladeshis have few options besides street protests to make their voices heard.
There is a risk of increased violence after the polls [in Bangladesh].
The election will not resolve Bangladesh’s political crisis … Since the 2008 election … the country has not held a credible national election.
You might ask ‘why would the military be interested in negotiating to take them [Rohingya refugees] back when it was the one that forced them to leave for the military re...
After fifteen years in power, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country following a month of protests in which over 300 people were killed. The army should prevent reprisal killings, and the soon-to-be-formed interim government should investigate abuses and begin rebuilding democracy.
Mass unrest has rocked Bangladesh in July, as students and others demonstrate against quotas for state jobs, and the government responds with deadly repression. In this Q&A, Crisis Group Asia Director Pierre Prakash explains what is behind the turmoil.
Bangladesh is heading into general elections with the opposition sitting out the vote after staging major protests. With dissatisfaction growing among the public, the ruling party and its rivals should hold negotiations to curb the risk of further turmoil.
In this online event, our panellists provide insight into the conditions Rohingya refugees face in Bangladesh and other host countries.
Nearly a million Rohingya remain stuck in Bangladesh, with little hope of going home soon, as violence rises in the camps and international agencies trim their assistance. Donors should scale the aid back up, while Dhaka should modify its approach to allow for long-term planning.
This edition includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Somaliland, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
The Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh looks set to drag on indefinitely. Insecurity in the overcrowded camps is growing. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges Europe to keep providing humanitarian assistance and increase its intake of refugees.
In August 2017, the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown on Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State. Hundreds of thousands fled and are now living in refugee camps in Bangladesh. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean explains why prospects for near-term repatriation remain low.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.